POLITICS
With a spate of corruption scandals and galloping prices of essential commodities eroding the credibility of the ruling UPA and more so of its main constituent, the Congress, one would have expected the BJP to capitalise on it by catching the country’s attention as a worthy alternative. However, the principal Opposition party seems unequal to the task of bouncing back into serious contention under a leadership that is a prisoner of the past. Consequently, a fractured polity continues to represent the country’s mood. In the last Lok Sabha elections in 2009, the Congress had emerged with 206 seats, having polled 37.22 per cent of the popular vote. This was a substantial improvement over the 145 seats it had bagged in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections with a vote share of 26.53 per cent.
Yet, with this tally, it was still 66 seats short of the half-way mark — a far cry from the days when the Congress on its own enjoyed a handsome majority. It had to rustle up a majority with help not only from its UPA partners but also post-poll allies like the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, which managed 44 seats between them. The Congress indeed needs to put its act together. Rampant corruption under its rule and a runaway inflation have sapped the enthusiasm of voters. Bickerings continue in various states with factions working at cross-purposes. It is in danger of losing ground in one of its bastions, Andhra Pradesh, where popular former Chief Minister late Rajasekhara Reddy’s son Jagan has raised the banner of revolt. In Tamil Nadu it is riding piggyback on the DMK which itself is in danger of losing out to J. Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK. In the Hindi heartland, it is a pale shadow of its earlier self. The Congress performance in the recent Assembly elections in Bihar has reinforced the ascendancy of regional forces and the consequent rejection of the Congress there. Having bagged a measly four seats in an Assembly of 243, the party can hardly expect a resurrection in the next Lok Sabha elections from that state. It is no better off in Uttar Pradesh, as the BSP rules the roost in UP with the Samajwadi Party waiting in the wings. With four states scheduled to go to polls in 2011 — Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal — the Congress’ fortunes could look up marginally but there is little chance of a dramatic transformation. In Kerala, election results traditionally swing between the Congress and the CPM. With the Left Democratic Front currently in power, it is a moot point whether the Congress will return on an anti-incumbency vote. Significantly, in the Lok Sabha elections in 2009, the Congress had bagged 13 of the 20 seats. Whether that reflected the disenchantment of voters with the Left alliance in the State is anybody’s guess. In West Bengal, the Congress is riding on the shoulders of the Trinamool Congress and can be expected to make gains if the alliance with TC holds. But the stormy petrel of the Trinamool Congress, Mamata Banerjee, is perennially an uncertain ally. When the Congress was buffeted by corruption scandals — among them the 2G spectrum allocation scam, the Commonwealth Games irregularities and the Adarsh Housing Society nepotism and corruption — there was a golden opportunity for the BJP as the principal challenger to take the high moral ground. But with the party high command coming under blackmail and pressure to retain Karnataka Chief Minister Yeddyurappa despite serious charges of corruption, the BJP’s case has been rendered weak. The BJP’s act of gross irresponsibility in boycotting an entire session of Parliament in quest of a JPC probe into 2G has soured the pitch further for the party. A golden opportunity to put the government on the mat was lost by shutting Parliament’s doors. There is still time for the Congress and the BJP to mend their ways since the next general elections are more than three years away. The electorate would be watching how sincere the Congress is in dealing with corruption scandals, whether it is able to rein in prices and whether the gap between what it practices and what it preaches is narrowing or not. For the BJP, it is an acid test of whether its younger leaders respond to the needs of the times in breathing new dynamism and inclusiveness in its policies and programmes. For the Left, the challenge is to move in step with the times shedding its outdated dogmas. The Prakash Karat kind of politics has hardly gone down well with the voters in Kerala and West Bengal and if current trends continue it could well lose out to the Trinamool Congress in alliance with the Congress. In the ultimate analysis, there can be little doubt that sustained failure on the part of the national parties to respond to the aspirations of the people would give a new fillip to regional parties across the country. Whether this would be a boon or a bane only time will tell.
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AS we reflect on the
year gone by and mull over the tidings for 2011 on the country’s
political stage, one thing is clear — that the return of the era of
single-party governments at the Centre is nowhere in sight. Indeed,
coalitions have become the order of the day both at the Centre and in
the states. Our brand of democracy has to learn to iron out some of
the infirmities of coalition politics — notably, the pulls and
pressures that characterise marriages of convenience.
