Divali festivities are enveloped in a little caution as the chill of global recession is still in the air as a mild autumn nip. But still north Indian families, whether the Madans in Amritsar, Singhals in Rohtak, Guptas in Jammu or the Lau household in Shimla, have warmed up to the spirit of Divali this year, writes Girija Shankar Kaura

In a spotless boutique in a quiet corner one of the many swank shopping malls across Delhi and the NCR the mood this Divali is upbeat as a beaming store manager gets down to enthusiastically showing me the fresh arrivals.

What would you like to purchase, he asks, as I go around inspecting. "How has the Divali sale been till now this year?" I ask him. "Much better than the last year," he says with a smile, which also reflects the overall mood in the market.

While the rest of the world might still be grappling with a global financial crisis, you wouldn’t know it here among the hand-printed silk scarves and ties, which the manager points out, "have been flying off the shelf."

Divali, which is the culmination of the busiest retail season on Indian calendar, has seen the city’s `E9lite as well as the not so wealthy out on the streets shopping for home, friends, relatives and employees.

Even the luxury brands that have made a beeline for India are not complaining. As per rough estimates the number of Indians with more than $1 million in assets has grown to almost 200,000, which is more than in any other Asian country.

Upbeat India Inc

SWEET TEMPTATIONS: Expensive chocolates have replaced the typical mithai ka dabbas as Divali gifts

India Inc is also unlikely to stay behind in this slow but steady turnaround. Reports suggest that the companies are likely to brighten this Divali for employees with bonuses, though tempered ones.

After weathering difficult days due to the global downturn, companies are seeing positive sentiment trickle in. And this may propel them to dole out bonuses this Divali. Ankur Sachdeva, Managing Director of popular Bonsai oriental restaurant-cum Corus Hostel in Connaught Place and the MD of Asian Motors, the sole selling agents of Mitshibushi cars in northern India, says, "last year on Divali, several restaurants wore a deserted look, but this year the change is evident as more people are thronging the markets for festival shopping and filling the eatieries to have lunch or tea-coffee".

Further he points out that with things looking up, companies are also likely to go ahead with their usual policy on Divali bonuses, which were not given in the past one year.

"I have always believed that India was among the few countries, which had not been affected so badly by recession, barring a few sectors that are directly dependent on the global market, or those who were into the business of foreign tourism," Sachdeva points out.

Chandrashekhar Chaudhary, owner of Imperial Hotel, opposite the bustling Old Delhi Railway Station is also upbeat about the sudden rush of customers in his hotel. The Fathehpuri area, where most of the budget hotels are located, is adjacent to the wholesale Khari Baoli Market, which sees rush of traders from all over the country during Divali time.

Chaudhary points out that it is the rush of traders at Khari Baoli, which gives them an idea of how Divali would be. Last year at this time the traders were cautious and unwilling to do bulk purchasing.

However, this year the turnaround is there for all to see as major deals are being struck and traders from all over the region have bought stock for the festive season. The traders’ rush is there and it is reflecting in our occupancy, which has seen an upswing of almost 50 per cent over the last year, he says.

This seems to be like an emerging market, says Sushil Kumar, a trader. The festive mood started late but picked up almost a week ahead of Divali. Last year the festival was more in the fear of uncertainty and everyone was on a cost-cutting spree, whereas this year things are definitely different.

People have already got into the mood of partying and playing cards (a tradition and belief that winning in cards during Divali brings prosperity), the weekend seems to be filled with invitations of typically lavish Delhi parties, which were missing last year.

The excitement level and morale in general is high in comparison to the year before. The typical mithai ka dabbas have been replaced by the expensive chocolates, the typical Scotch has made way for single malts and even the cuisine reflects a more confident and a more progressive Divali than last year, adds Sachdeva.

Last year, the flow of gifts during Divali slowed down to a trickle as people tightened their purse strings and stayed away from expensive presents. Indian favourites such as Ganesha idols, watches, gold and silver coins, jewellery, home decor, crockery and writing instruments took a backseat as people picked up sweets and dry fruits to gift to their near and dear ones.

According to a survey, despite the economic slowdown, Indian consumers are upbeat about spending this festive season.

"The average Divali spend among Indians this year would be $213 with household items, health and beauty, entertainment and vouchers or gift cards topping the gift list," said the survey by online payment company PayPal.

According to the survey, about 45 per cent are expected to spend more during this festive season than they did last year.

The survey said about 70 per cent of Indians are keen to keep the holiday spirit alive without fail. Of the four countries surveyed across the south and southeast Asia, Indians also appear to be the savviest at online shopping, with three quarters intending to shop online during the festive period

While there has been an impact on the bullion market due to the rising prices of gold, there has been little impact on the gift items market.

Manik Jain, owner of Nikka Mal Jain Jewellers in Ludhiana, says the prices of gold have reached an all-time high at Rs 16,000 this year. As a result only compulsory buyers are there in the market. Divali is the festival when people buy jewellery, specially the gold guineas, to be gifted to their near and dear ones. But situation is not same this Divali. However, Amit Jain of Jainsons, who deals in imported gift items and crockery, said recession has had no impact on the sale of these items as buyers had started coming to the store to puchase gift-items to be exchanged during Divali.

"Divali is the festival when everyone wants to enjoy and celebrate to the maximum. We are adding fresh stock everyday, as there is a good demand in market. These are not so expensive products and even a middle-class buyer doesn’t mind spending money on these. The rush of customers will only increase in the next few days. In the last two-three days, we arrange more salesmen to tackle the huge rush," said Jain.

According to a survey, about 45 per cent people are expected to spend more during this festive season than they did last year. Tribune photos

The industrialists there have a similar opinion. MD of Nahar Group of Industries, Kamal Oswal feels that impact of recession was there on the economy, but it was now improving slowly.

Rajni Bector, the woman behind the Cremica Group of Industries, said it would be wrong to say that there was no impact of recession in India. Her company has massive sales during Divali time, especially through gift packs and other confectionary items. She points out that the celebrations depend on the budgets. If budgets go haywire, the celebrations have to be a low-key affair. If there is no money, you can’t spend lavishly on parties and get-togethers.

" I feel there will be no exchange of expensive gifts this time," said Bector while adding that as far as providing bonus to employees working with Cremica was concerned; no cost-cutting measures had been adopted by her company. "Employees are the backbone of any industry, so they should be made happy at any cost", said Bector.

Himachal Pradesh is not ruing the absence of a strong corporate sector in the hill state. This time around they are more than happy with the image of a public sector and horticulture dominated economy.

As other parts of the region reel under severe recession, Himachal has not had to bear the brunt of global meltdown. With a strong presence of almost four lakh government employees in the state, very few have had to bear salary cuts or other cost effective measures adopted mainly by the corporate sector.`A0
`A0The effect is reflected in the sales of various commodities. The sales of cars, jeeps and other vehicles, have witnessed an upswing of at least 25 per cent during the festival season in this hill state.

"With a majority of the people here being in government jobs and others owning orchards, we have done brisk business despite recession," said Sandeep Thakur, Sales Manager, Goel Motors.

While Goel Motors sold more than 350 vehicles during the Navratras, other agencies, including that of Mahindra and Chevrolet, too, have had good sales, belying claims that recession has affected vehicle sales. As compared to last year most of the agencies have surprisingly done good business contrary to expectations.

With a sizeable chunk of the population in Himachal also having income from apple orchards and other horticultural activities, recession has not hit the people in a big way. The corporate sector moreover has a very negligible presence in the state, which has, in a way, proved to be a boon in such gloomy times.

With their woollen shawl business taking a severe hit due to the downturn and massive power cuts, the Madan family in Amritsar is one of the several small business owners who are yet to find stability to give in to the splurge spirit of Divali. G.S Madan, 87, the family patriarch said the downturn has forced them to cut on their extravaganza during the festival time.

Despite the signs of a turnaround, the fear of recession is still deep rooted among the people forcing them to be cautious. This, along with the rising prices, has kept people will to spend in check in some other parts of the country.

"This year’s Divali celebrations won’t be as colourful as these used to be earlier, though the market is reviving itself, but still people are not spending much so the business has been badly hampered," says Kapil Kumar Gupta owner of Kumar Hardware store in Jammu.

Every year Gupta family used to spend around Rs 5,000 on firecrackers and an equal amount on purchasing of new clothes for kids and presents for the relatives, but this year the family plans to cut the budget into one half and restrict presenting of gifts to only close relatives.

The never-say-die Haryanavi spirit is also ready to bounce back but is feeling trapped in the whirlwind of spiraling prices.

"Though the economy in general has finally started looking up, the sharp increase in the prices of essential commodities, coupled with the onset of the marriage season, have been holding back our urge to celebrate the festival of lights in a lavish way, "observes Dr Suresh Singhal, Associate Professor of English at Vaish College in Rohtak, the heartland of Haryana. Dr Singhal feels that ultimately the middle class suffers the pinch of the phenomenon such as recession and inflation.

However, there is no doubt that the spirit of Divali is back this year and with the markets picking up too, it would be a much better show this year than the last year.