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Congress loses Punjab Uttarakhand goes to BJP |
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Defence needs more money
Key factor
Cheney visit mounts pressure on Musharraf Iraqi Cabinet approves draft
oil plan
Defence Notes
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Congress loses Punjab THE results of the Punjab Assembly election clearly show the wisdom of the voters. They simply punished the Congress government for its sheer indifference to their woes and insensitivity to the concept of accountability to the people. They voted for the Shiromani Akali Dal-Bharatiya Janata Party combine so that it is able to form a stable government. While being decisive they were also careful in ensuring that there is a strong Opposition in the House, which can keep the government under check. Not only that, even within the ruling alliance, neither the SAD nor the BJP can lord it over the other, critically dependent as they are on each other to run the government. The voters also refrained themselves from experimenting with many of the smaller parties that were in the fray. Of course, all this is no consolation for Captain Amarinder Singh and the Congress, who have only themselves to blame for the setback. The Congress failed to deliver on the many promises it made while dislodging the Akali Dal from power five years ago. In that election, corruption was the major plank on which it won the confidence of the voters. The Congress should have learnt from the Akali Dal’s defeat five years ago. Sadly for Captain Amarinder Singh, while equating the fight against corruption with his obsessive desire to send SAD chief Parkash Singh Badal and his son to jail, he glossed over the corruption charges made against his own government. His credentials to speak against corruption became suspect when liquor barons began to influence government decisions by flaunting their proximity to the chief minister. He wasted over three years on fixing his political rival at the end of which all he had to show the electorate were some chargesheets filed against the Akali leader. By the time he woke up to the realities and went on a mass-contact programme, it was too late to make amends. He failed to take advantage of an indulgent government at the Centre during the latter half of his tenure to create infrastructure and, more important, jobs for the unemployed youth. Unfortunately, development in the Congress lexicon meant allotting government land at throw-away prices to real estate agents. The people were seeing this themselves. While the Akali Dal, which traditionally draws its sustenance from Sikhism, refrained from invoking religion in the elections, the Congress sought to make up for its lack of public support by appealing to religious leaders in selected areas. In doing so, not only did it tarnish the secular credentials of the party, it also put off some of its own supporters. Nor did the Captain’s decision on unilaterally abrogating the river-water arrangements the state had entered into with other states pay him any electoral dividend. Pandering to populism as was the case when rural electric supply was virtually made free of cost did not yield the desired results except showing the Congress up as a poor imitator of the Akali Dal which also did not gain from throwing financial prudence to the winds. And to cap it all, the government failed to control the prices of essential commodities like wheat flour and pulses, which went beyond the purchasing power of the common man. It was, therefore, quite brave of the Congress to have expected to come back to power. The defeat of many Congress ministers and MLAs, who ought to have been denied tickets, is a clear manifestation of the voters’ strong feelings against the government for taking them for granted. Mr Parkash Singh Badal, who will form the next government, has ruled out following the politics of vendetta the Congress had adopted as its policy. He will have to make many such resolutions if he is not to repeat the mistakes he himself and the Captain had made. Sooner than later, he will find that promising atta at Rs 2 a kg is easier said than done. Corruption was indeed an issue that bothered the voters. He will have to ensure that his government is absolutely corruption-free, which means, he will have to keep a tight leash on those who caused disrepute to the party in the past. Controlling prices will have to engage the government’s attention on a priority basis. While the government on its own is not expected to provide jobs, it should be able to evolve policies which create more jobs. Development of infrastructure calls for immediate attention, as the lack of it is what prevents industrial investment in Punjab. Whatever policy the Akali Dal and the BJP might have adopted when they were in Opposition, they will have to pursue policies, which will instil confidence among the investors. After all their responsibility is to the 30 lakh or so unemployed youth, who have been looking in vain for jobs. Mr Parkash Singh Badal will have to decide against making any tainted person a minister. He must at all times ensure that his government remains clean. |
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Uttarakhand goes to BJP AS expected, the BJP has emerged as the top scorer in the Uttarakhand elections. In fact, going by what some pollsters said, the party should have done better. But they often do not know the voters’ mind. In any case, the BJP has won 34 seats in a House of 70. The saffron party can easily prove its majority with the help of Independents, though most of them are Congress rebels who refused to withdraw in favour of the official candidates. Any support from the BSP or the Uttarakhand Kranti Dal is almost ruled out, as both had been hinting at forming a coalition government with the help of the Congress ever since it became clear that the BJP had an edge over the ruling party. The Congress said while conceding defeat that it suffered because of the division of the “secular” votes. However, the truth is that it lost power because of several factors working against it. And the party has only itself to blame for them. Besides the anti-incumbency factor, the N. D. Tiwari regime was accused of doing little to eradicate rampant corruption. The sky-rocketing prices of essential commodities also damaged the electoral prospects of the Congress candidates. People were also sick of poor governance, though they would admit that there was no guarantee that a new government would take their grievances as seriously as they desire. But it was clear they had made up their mind to get rid of the Congress government. The BJP was rejected in the previous elections mainly because it gave little importance to issues like naming the new state as Uttaranchal instead of Uttarakhand. The Congress has been shown the door because people wanted a corruption-free government and an administration that worked for the development of the backward state. The new government will, therefore, have to set its priorities by keeping these points in view. People want not only corruption to be removed as far as possible, but also enough employment opportunities in the state. There is need for innovative schemes to attract investment on a vast scale to fight growing unemployment. |
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Money is the sinews of love, as of war.—
George Farquhar |
Defence needs more money THE national budget will be out today. To what extent the aspirations of society and the requirements of security will be met is a matter of conjecture. There are competing demands from the economy. Public services like health, education, water and infrastructure such as roads, ports and power are all important and deserve high priority. The expectations of the armed forces are also high at the same time. They find themselves in a rather disadvantageous position today on account of their dwindling potential and the grave security environment that prevails in and around the country. The Indian Air Force is no more what it was a few years ago. The Navy too needs to be built up if it is to secure the country’s interests on the high seas. The Army has not kept pace with the growing potential of the adversary. Sad but true, the modernisation of the armed forces has not been able to keep pace with the rate of obsolescence. Particularly since the sting operations brought the procurement process to a grinding halt. We are already faced with the crisis of military modernisation. However, with the GDP now growing at more than 9 per cent, will the government be able to meet the conflicting demands equitably? In fact, there is need for evolving a scientific approach as to how to address these diverse and equally crucial priorties. A serious re-examination of our approach to the issue is long overdue. After all, defence planning is nothing but fiscal planning for defence which actually means evolving the force structure and the strategy required to meet the assigned objectives. It is worth mentioning here that the Americans keep evolving new methodologies of defence planning and budgeting periodically. It was Defence Secretary McNamara who first developed and introduced in the early sixties what is called the Planning, Programming and Budgeting System (PPBS) for the armed forces. Later, in response to post-Cold War imperatives, Mr Donald Rumsfeld called for a review of the planning processes. He followed it up by a series of policy changes in defence planning and budgeting. The defence focus was shifted from the Cold War era force structure to one that confronts modern threats. The development of military capabilities and the forces had to be based on strategic objectives that a state desires its military to accomplish. The strategy provides the end and the resources (fund allocation) the means. There are indications to suggest that there may be yet another review of the defence planning processes now that the current system refined by Mr Rumsfeld has been there for some years. Here is a lesson for our political leadership. We either lack similar intellectual attributes or perhaps do not care for such intricacies. Its all the more strange that even the Planning Commission or the Ministry of Finance or the Finance Department of the Ministry of Defence have never cared to consider working out a scientific methodology for the purpose of defence planning, programming and budgeting. Defence allocation in our case is a simple process of giving what can be spared, without much to do with threat perception, strategic considerations or force structure requirement, etc. It also needs to be understood that defence spending is not a wasteful expenditure. It, too, results in varied development. Infrastructure like roads (strategic), the communication network, employment opportunities and dual purpose R&D are all examples of development consequent to defence expenditure. Defence and development must not, therefore, be seen mutually exclusive and considered non-productive as hitherto. Without adequate security, no worthwhile development can be expected. Sustained economic growth and assured security are essential pre-requisites for comprehensive national development. As of now, India is quite resurgent, with its economy growing at more than 9 per cent. The ‘world is gradually getting interested in India for various economic reasons. The rising inflation may, however, slow down the growth momentum to some extent. But at the same time, ploughing back into defence 30 per cent of the total contract value of new procurements beyond Rs 300 crore value will offset the shortages in the allocation to quite an extent. This may add up to nearly $30 bn over the entire Plan period. In fact, it is the security environment that is a bit worrying. India’s security seems more threatened from near abroad than far abroad. Although, the relations with China have matured to an extent, one can ill-afford to ignore its fast-paced military modernisation, leading to significant capability improvement. China’s growing comprehensive national power is continuously changing the strategic balance to India’s disadvantage. China is paying special attention to its navy and the air force in order to achieve the objectives outlined in its White Paper on Defence released in December last year. China’s defence budget has been increasing at more than 15 per cent over more than a decade now. The relations with Pakistan stand improved to some extent, consequent to the ongoing dialogue. Still one has to view them with cautious optimism. Induction of latest fighter and surveillance aircraft from the US, China and Sweden will boost the Pakistan Air Force’s capabilities substantially. The Gwadar seaport has added yet another dimension. Besides, the domestic problems of India’s neighbours are also India’s problems. Internal instability anywhere in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka or Nepal has an adverse impact on India. A stable neighbourhood is a strategic imperative for India. The current scenario may make the government accord higher priority to defence as compared to the past. For many years now, our defence expenditure has been averaging around 2.3 per cent of the GDP despite the pressing demands of modernisation and induction of higher technology equipment in the Services. In the long-term interest of the country, it is important that a realistic minimum figure is worked out for defence spending. Only then can defence planning can become more meaningful. Defence planning is a complex and comprehensive exercise involving manpower planning to make it cost-effective, equipment acquisition and modernisation, all in consonance with the strategic interests and the threats to the nation’s security. Traditionally, the Planning Commission has never been involved in defence planning and budgeting. It’s time this lacuna is rectified. The current security scenario demands higher allocation from the national resources which the presently booming economy can afford to yield. Unless India invests adequately in safeguarding its security, it will not be able to ward off an aggression from its adversaries. Our own history will tell us that weak armed forces often invite aggression. India must ensure that its deterrence remains in place. And the only way to do so is to avoid adhocism in defence planning and by investing appropriately in the most important tool of national security, that is the armed forces. Its in our strategic interest that the opportunity provided by our fast growing and stable economy is made use of to build the national comprehensive power further. We need military capabilities to combat internal security and protect interests beyond our borders in our immediate neighbourhood. Unless we are able to set aside around 3 per cent of the GDP for defence, our deterrence will remain incredible, to say the least. As of now, the third largest Army and the fourth largest Air Force are slowly losing their fighting edge. This is so not only in comperison to China, which is building rail tracks in Tibet to transport its army divisions closer to India’s borders and airfields, but also even the lesser Pakistan which is fast modernising its air force and the navy. The very fact that the Air Chief was constrained to write to the Defence Minister in July last year stating the “IAF’s strength will deplete to a level which would entirely neutralise the conventional superiority held by the JAF since our independence” reflects the gravity of the situation as it obtains today. He implored the minister to help expedite the procurement of much-needed aircraft before the IAF is disadvantaged vis-à-vis its adversaries. If this slide is allowed to continue, by the end of the 10th Plan (2007) combat strength will get reduced to mere 29 squadrons as against the sanctioned 39.5 squadrons. However slow, the government has finally come around to resorting to fast-paced measures to arrest the downslide. The Budget alone will tell how serious the government is in this
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Key factor WHY the hell have you hung so many keys on my little hooks?” grumbled my key-stand one fine day. Anything’s possible in this bizarre world, so I wasn’t at all amazed to hear an inanimate thing air its grievance. Pat came my reply: “Lots of things have to be locked — gates, doors, almirahs, cupboards, drawers, suitcases, briefcases, trunks, refrigerator, car, scooter, bank locker and what not. For every lock, of course, there’s one key — or more, if there are duplicates.” “I know that very well, but do all these devices make you feel safe and secure?” it probed teasingly. “Well...not really. Thieves are pretty smart these days. Virtually no lock is unbreakable for them. Still, one has to make some arrangements for the safety of one’s goods.” “Obviously, you don’t agree with what Naseeruddin Shah said in his delightful film Katha. He detested locks. According to him, they signified man’s distrust of his fellow beings.” “What foolish innocence! No wonder the poor fellow’s hard-earned money was pinched — by his friend, no less. That’s how one learns a lesson not to trust anybody.” “What about your maid? She has maintained a clean record over the years.” “I agree she hasn’t stolen anything so far, but why take a chance? It’s better not to keep things unguarded when she’s around. As a precautionary measure.” “I have an idea,” the key-stand exclaimed. “Try tempting her. Don’t lock anything. See what happens.” “Forget it. I won’t fall for your risky scheme. After all, how can I trust you?” “That’s ridiculous. I can’t harm you in any way. I’m just a wooden object nailed to the wall in your dining room.” “You don’t look so innocuous to me. Who knows, you might be in league with the maid, letting her make imprints of these keys on soap cakes so that she can get duplicates made.” “You are accusing me of complicity? That’s the height of paranoia.” “Don’t be surprised,” I said. “These are times in which people hide things even from their nearest and dearest. We all have secrets concealed in our cupboards or our hearts.” “In that case, I’d rather keep my new-found mouth shut.” “Exactly. And to be on the safe side, I’ll put you too under lock and key.” “Forgive these humans, O Lord, for they know not what they do....” |
Cheney visit mounts pressure on Musharraf ISLAMABAD, Pakistan – United States Vice President Dick Cheney’s unannounced visit to the Pakistani capital on Monday was the latest and most visible signal of renewed U.S. pressure on President Pervez Musharraf to crack down on Islamic militants in Pakistan’s lawless tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. But complex domestic considerations in Pakistan, and a keen awareness on Musharraf’s part that the Bush administration sees no palatable alternative to his leadership, diminish the prospect of any dramatic Pakistani move against the militants, diplomats and analysts said. “There is only so far that he is prepared to go,” said Rahul Roy-Chaudhury of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a leading British think tank on security matters. “Some of this is dictated by the (Pakistani) military’s view of things, and some by the fact that this is not politically popular in large parts of Pakistan. ... He’s not willing to go beyond a certain limit.” In his unannounced stopover, Cheney became the highest-ranking U.S. official of late to press Musharraf to rein in what American officials characterize as a volatile mix of homegrown Pakistani militant groups, Taliban strategists and al-Qaida elements, all operating with an increasing degree of freedom in the tribal zones along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The issue has been central to U.S.-Pakistan relations since the September 11 attacks, but seldom has the Bush administration been as blunt or as public in its pressure on Musharraf, a key ally in the region. The stepped-up pressure also comes as Congress threatens to cut aid to Pakistan unless it sees more concrete results in combating militants’ cross-border infiltration to Afghanistan. Neither Cheney nor Musharraf spoke publicly before or after their meeting at the presidential palace, which lasted more than two hours. They appeared before the cameras for a handshake only. In a written statement, however, the Pakistani leader’s office acknowledged that Musharraf had come under at least indirect criticism from the vice president. Cheney “expressed U.S. apprehensions of (the) regrouping of al-Qaida in the tribal areas and called for concerted efforts in countering the threat,” the statement said. Cheney was accompanied by Steve Kappes, the deputy CIA director, whose presence underscored U.S. concern over intelligence assessments that indicate a deteriorating situation in the tribal areas. For his part, Musharraf hewed to what has become his government’s scripted reply to such concerns: that Pakistan already is doing all it can, and that the burden of confronting the Taliban and its allies must be shared by other parties, including the Afghan government and NATO. The Pakistani leader told Cheney that the international community was “collectively responsible for defeating the scourge of terrorism,” adding that “Pakistan has done the maximum,” the government statement said. And in a protest against any move to cut aid to his government, the fifth-largest recipient of U.S. foreign assistance, Musharraf decried “proposed discriminatory legislation regarding U.S. aid to Pakistan,” according to the Pakistani statement. The New York Times reported in its Monday editions that President Bush intended to warn Musharraf that congressional Democrats might seek such cuts in response to the Pakistani leader’s perceived reluctance to energetically confront the militant threat in the tribal areas. In Washington, White House spokesman Tony Snow said “The Pakistanis remain committed to doing everything possible to fight al-Qaida, but having said that, we also know that there’s a lot more that needs to be done.” Several Western diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there was a gap between Western expectations and what Musharraf was in a position to accomplish. Pakistan has been enduring a spate of suicide bombings that began after a government air raid aimed at Islamic militants in the tribal areas late last year. Some analysts suggested the Pakistani leader risked being blamed if such raids trigger a backlash in Pakistani towns and cities. “If he goes back to a more robust military intervention, the view here will be that he is toeing the American line,” said Talat Masood, a retired Pakistani general. “I think it will give rise to a lot of spillover effect, in terms of violence and suicide bombings, against both hard and soft targets.” And Musharraf is unlikely to let his own domestic political agenda be dictated by Washington, Roy-Chaudhury said. “We’ve seen a ratcheting up of pressure on Musharraf, certainly, but his No. 1 priority is that this is an election year, and he wants to stay in power,” he said. After his talks with Musharraf, Cheney flew to Bagram air base, north of Kabul. But a planned meeting with Afghan President Hamid Karzai was scrapped because a snowstorm made travel to the Afghan capital by helicopter too dangerous, a presidential spokesman said. Times staff writer James Gerstenzang in Washington and special correspondent Mubashir Zaidi in Islamabad contributed to this report. By arrangement with
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Iraqi Cabinet approves draft
oil plan BAGHDAD, Iraq – After months of negotiations over the post-war spoils of Iraq’s most valuable natural resource, the Iraqi government announced on Monday night that it had approved a draft plan to ramp up oil production and share the proceeds. The agreement on the terms by Iraq’s cabinet was touted as a major breakthrough. It must still be approved by Parliament, but because all of Iraq’s vested ethnic and regional interests are represented in the Cabinet, the deal was viewed as having overcome a significant hurdle. The United States has long wanted to capitalize on Iraq’s oil resources, especially as a means of paying for the country’s reconstruction since the 2003 invasion. Oil’s importance was reiterated in the Iraq Study Group report released in December. The agreement not only will open international investment in Iraq’s oil industry – a bonanza for foreign oil companies – but will produce revenue for a nation badly in need of cash to finance its reconstruction. Iraq’s oil riches predominantly lie in the Kurdish-controlled north and the Shiite-controlled south. Reaching an agreement essentially required both parties to be willing to share their bounty with Sunnis in the middle -- a particularly painful prospect as Sunnis under Saddam Hussein controlled the entire government. In addition, Kurds, who are pushing a referendum on withdrawal from Iraq, wanted more control over their ability to strike contracts with foreign firms and spend profits as they see fit. According to the statement from the office of U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, all revenues from oil sales will go into a single national account, but all regions and provinces will have a seat on an energy policy-making body, and provinces will receive shares of revenue and have control over how they spend it. In Washington, White House spokesman Tony Snow called a new oil law the “key linchpin” in Iraq’s recovery because it gives “everybody a shared economic interest in working together.” During a visit to Baghdad earlier this month, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice urged Iraqi leaders to pass the law, saying “it’s really critical” to show signs of national reconciliation. The oil sector in Iraq has not been in full-scale development since the 1980s. Fewer than a quarter of its fields have been developed; production volume fell by 8 percent in 2005. And yet it is the overwhelming source of revenue in Iraq and is expected to bring in $31 billion this year, based on projected exports of 1.7 million barrels a day at a price of $50 a barrel. It was unclear what concessions led to the compromise, and the precise terms of the deal were not immediately available. The U.S. has been exerting considerable pressure on Iraqi leadership for months to reach the accord, and one Sunni politician said Monday night that the deal had been brokered by Khalilzad himself. Iraqi parliament members were cautious to embrace the plan. Still, most agreed that a cabinet compromise was a good sign. “Definitely, if there is a cabinet accordance, this would be a good key for a future accordance in the Parliament,” said Qusai Abdul-Wahab, a Shiite member of Parliament. Others predicted a tougher battle for the proposal on its way to becoming law. “I think there will be great opposition to it in the Parliament,” said Rashid al-Azzawi, of the Sunni Parliamentary bloc known as the Iraqi Accordance Front. Some analysts say the law also will be viewed dimly as another tool of the United States to get its hands on the country’s oil. Antonia Juhasz, an analyst at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C., who has written extensively on the economic aspects of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, said throwing open the oil industry to foreign investment – which no doubt would include U.S. oil interests – would only heighten Iraqis’ distrust of the United States. “Most people in Iraq assume the U.S. invasion was about oil,” she said. “When the people of Iraq learn that the majority of their oil fields are being turned over to foreign private production ... it worries me. I wouldn’t want to be a soldier on the ground when the law passes.” Times staff writer Saif Hameed contributed to this report. By arrangement with
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Defence Notes THE tragic crash during rehearsals of one of the indigenously produced Dhurv helicopters belonging to the display team Sarang, just three days before the start of the recently concluded Aero India show at Bangalore, had cast a doubt over the team’s participation during the opening ceremony and in the subsequent flying displays. With the IAF losing one of its experienced pilots in the crash, the force had also grounded the entire fleet in routine procedures for a complete check up. But this put a lot of pressure on the organisers, the Ministry of Defence, as to whether or not to showcase the helicopter for the opening ceremony. Not going ahead would have reflected the country in a bad light. Although the IAF did not make any comments, it was the Secretary Defence Production K.P. Singh who took the final decision to showcase the helicopter at the show and that too at the last minute. As a result, the full dress rehearsal of the opening ceremony was also delayed by a day. But at the end of it the Sarang team came out in flying colours even if they sadly missed one of their key team members. Army’s fourth Everest expedition The Indian Army has chosen 20 personnel for its mountaineering team which is to attempt summiting Mount Everest in the month of April this year. Lt Col IS Thapa of the Maratha Light Infantry is to lead the expedition which is likely to be flagged off in the second half of March. This is the fourth expedition by the Army to Mount Everest . The last expedition, which succeeded in summiting Mount Everest in the year 2005, was an all-women expedition. Prior to that, expeditions were launched successfully in the years 2001 and 2003. For this expedition, a total of 80 personnel volunteered. From them, 45 were selected to undergo an advanced mountaineering course at the Western Himalayan Mountaineering Institute in Manali. Thereafter the team carried out training by scaling Mount Bhagirthi-II (6510 metres) and Mount Mana (7273 metres) in the Garhwal region. The final selection for the 20 members, of which 14 will be summiteers and the other six support staff, was carried out after a fruitful training session at Siachen. The team will attempt Mount Everest from the North.
Security calculus The Indian Army think-tank, Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), organised an international seminar last week which saw an impressive gathering of serving and retired civil and military officers, ambassadors and high commissioners, defence attaches and advisers, and academicians, from 28 countries. The focus was on ‘Emerging World Order: Implications for the Security Calculus of the Extended South Asian Region.” |
If a good thought guides your action, be sure that happiness will follow you like your shadow. Supplicants are countless. God alone is the Giver. The most important thing in life is to remain detached from all we do, all the values we practice, all the people with whom we are connected by ties of blood and all the actions which may bring us great honour. One who has been able to do this is the true yogi. |
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