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Crafting Peace in Kashmir: Through
a Realist Lens
This book offers a popular perspective, which sees more than just security concerns. The study has been evaluated because it began, as the author says, when tensions between India and Pakistan were high. The author finds it impossible to hope for peace between the two countries unless a broad consensus develops on issues, without which any periodic thaw is unlikely to lead to durable peace. Examining peacemaking opportunities that arose from vexed conflicts like the Northern Ireland, Sri Lanka and Arab-Palestine problems, Verghese admits that the Good Friday agreement of Northern Ireland offers a useful insight into the Kashmir solution, notwithstanding subjectivity in both cases. The Arab-Israel conflict has realistic and miraculous solutions, which involve divine intervention as well as voluntary settlement. In Sri Lanka, the peace efforts that started in 2001 have made more progress than what was expected. Studying these cases can help India and Pakistan explore pragmatic approaches to solve all issues. The author says any protracted conflict has three dimensions: structure, attitude and behaviour. The latter connotes the action of the parties and is largely under the control of the government. It can even alter the structure of the conflict. A change in attitude is crucial for it. Several years of Pakistan-supported militancy in Kashmir and earlier in Punjab has created negative emotions and perceptions in minds of the Indian elite. The rising anger resulted in extreme reactions such as reneging on the Indus Water Treaty or attacking Pakistan, thereby increasing Pakistan’s paranoia. Pakistan is aware of its huge economic, social and diplomatic losses due to its struggle with India, but considering that its nuclear capability has neutralised India’s conventional superiority, it can continue to confront India without undue risk. Perceptions like that the goals of the two sides are irreconcilable has made promotion of peace psychologically hard and politically unsafe. In spite of this, Verghese concludes that peace between India and Pakistan is possible, if there is political realism, as the current events portend. The India-Pakistan conflict is mainly on Kashmir. The other issues are minor. Siachen is a part of Kashmir and Sir Creek and Wullar/Tulbal issues are not significant, even though, at times, Pakistan prioritises these equally. Even Kashmir is no great economic prize to either country. The reality is that neither India nor Pakistan needs Kashmir that is with the other side. The contest is entirely due to politicised emotions. The 10 chapters of the book deal with India-Pakistan conflict, its evolution and conflict drivers, nuclear dangers, Kashmir and the outside world, insights from Northern Ireland, Sri Lanka and Arab-Isreal conflicts and moving from conflict to peace. It looks at some key issues involved in the peace process. It is unprecedented that now both countries are looking at the US to pursue their divergent objectives. Neither of the two trusts the US completely, but a properly structured low-key US initiative can make some headway. For the US also, ending the India-Pakistan conflict is easier than solving the question of Palestine. India’s strategy in Kashmir is shaped by the view that with the country trying to leapfrog on other fronts, a delayed settlement will be to its advantage. Just as India is not actually contesting the Chinese occupation of Aksai Chin, Pakistan may also eventually give up its hard-line approach. Even when political centrality of the army in Pakistan rests a great deal on its role as the guardian against India, it fully understands that this is taking the country into socio-economic decline that would only strengthen domestic opposition to the army. The choices available to army are diminishing. India, Verghese says, should work out an arrangement with the discontented Kashmiri groups without Pakistan intervening negatively. India should also help Pakistan and its army feel secure. Building up public confidence and rising economic dynamism between India and Pakistan is crucial to peace. This scholarly work gives an intellectual angle to a complex problem. It’s now up to the policy makers, security experts and scholars working on Kashmir to take on from here. |
UNTIL the beginning of this year, nobody could have
predicted the fast changes in the relationship between India and
Pakistan. Though there is no Berlin-like wall, there is a talk of making
the borders irrelevant and the process seems irreversible. However, it
is important to develop a forward-looking approach by the leaders of
both countries.