A peek into the future of technology
Chandra Mohan

The Technology Machine
by Patricia Moody and Richard Morley. Free Press. Pages 318. Rs 1050.

PREDICTION of future technologies is a human tendency. The number of predictions of Archimedes, Galileo, HG Wells, Jules Verne that later came true is legion. The authors reproduce a 1901 Japanese newspaper publication predicting 24 technologies of 20th century, 73 per cent of which have come true.

Are such predictions valid in today’s world of technological change at bewildering speed? The dotcom debacle of 2000 underlines the danger of such predictions. But at the same time, certain technological directions are clear even in present milieu of uncertainty: These are:

* Lean and efficient organisations which exhibit super-quick responses to change will survive.

* Production, particularly final assembly, is shifting into the hands of customers, as can be seen in the cases of DELL, CISCO, eBay.

* Increasing application of knowledge to facilitate change.

* Emphasis on efficiency and optimisation will shift push-led manufacturing schedules via ERP to pull-dictated Parallel Inference Machine, PIM.

The authors then go on to describe their pioneering experience in developing PIM. It began with the 10-booth Fort Wayne Paint Shop of General Motors. A body was auto-selected by individual booths for being painted in the colour specified by the customer. The selection of the colour was optimised through the use of an appropriate software to minimise losses in colour-change; ensure speedy switch of colour and highest value addition. The payback of investment in less than a year, emboldened the team to tackle bigger projects.

A far more complex application of PIM is in the management of the Japanese Bullet Trains, Shinkanzem. In this case PIM optimises the following:

* Simultaneous running of 135 trains at a speed of 300 kmph on 600 km. of track, at an interval of 3.5 minutes.

* Safety of the trains. There have been no fatal accident since the trains began running in 1964.

* The correction of acceleration and braking

* Corrections for peaking of system voltage and energy efficiency, etc.

Use of PIM will become widespread in the future The performance of the new age organisations will be evaluated on the basis of knowledge, new projects, patents, investments in technology, customer understanding and care. Success will come from:

* Hiring top people.

* Strong leaders

* Having an enemy

* Avoiding surprises.

* Pushing local control.

* Small work groups, of not more than seven.

* Pay determined by performance and not longevity.

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