The threat of retaliatory terrorist attacks as the direct fallout of the Iraq War, quite naturally, aggravated the fear psychosis in the minds of the ordinary, and even business, travellers. What compounded the crisis was that most countries opted for more complicated travel procedures and more stringent checks at airports, hotels etc. to cope with the increased security threat perception.

The only saving grace for the Indian tourism industry, whose share in the world tourist traffic has remained static around 0.38 per cent was that the conflict came just as the peak travel season was ending, around mid-March. Nevertheless, even the Indian Tourism Development Corporation (ITDC) admits that there has been an almost complete drying up of fresh bookings since the war began. But in the absence of any travel advisories against India, it's hopeful the impact would be only short-term.

Industry analysts, however, warn of a serious trigger effect in the long term on tourism, which is one of the biggest foreign exchange earners for the country. And since the tourism industry provides direct and indirect employment to 42 million people and accounts for as much as 6 per cent of the gross domestic product, the overall impact on economy could be serious. More so if the conflict drags into September, when the peak season begins for the Indian tourism industry.

Data from the Tourism Ministry shows that the average monthly inflow of tourists in the off season in 2002 was 143,822—37 per cent less than during the peak season of the first three months of the previous year. Tourist arrivals fell sharply after the U.S, Britain and Western European countries, which account for the bulk of travellers to the country, issued travel warnings for India at the height of India-Pakistan border tensions last summer. But since the warnings were lifted in August, the number of tourist arrivals had been steadily climbing and yearly statistics from the Ministry put foreign arrivals, as of January 2003, at 2,78,298 - up from 2,28,150 the previous year.

But the War effectively put a brake on the upward climb, with bookings for packages to the US and Europe falling by 25 to 30 per cent.

While the Indian Government's Department of Tourism (DOT) was still working on a new strategy, travel agencies, particularly the smaller ones for whom it was a question of survival, did not take long after the Gulf War began to change their stratagem. Already, there are indications that bulk foreign tour cancellations are being sought by these agencies to be converted into bulk domestic travel reservations, often through incentive schemes to woo the country's growing travel-conscious middle class.

For the domestic traveller, what is on the anvil is a virtual bonanza of travel packages and schemes encompassing the entire spectrum of the Indian tourism profile.

The states are likely to be the biggest gainers of this stratagem shift to domestic tourism, at least so long as `Have money, will travel' remains the USP for those who have a few thousand rupees to spare. As for those engaged in the travel industry, it's just a matter of learning, once again, to value the domestic traveller who may not take long, after things settle down and the world is back to its relatively peaceful ways, to take that big leap into the `foreign tourist' bracket.