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Market Forecasts and
Indicators is a
multi-client study designed and directed by S. R. Mohnot. The
study has been undertaken by the Centre for Industrial and
Economic Research and co-sponsored by a number of public and
private sector organisations. It is an exercise by a large
number of researchers, experts and specialists. This is an
attempt to scan the "explosive decade," as Mohnot
prefers to call it, of 2002-2012 and is an updated and revised
version of an earlier effort.
The basic
objective of the study is to appraise the past and provide
futuristic indicators for tomorrow, which will serve as tools
for making strategic decisions today. The entire study has been
divided into four modules. The first module, "Study Design
and Macro Analysis," deals with design and macro
projections, while the second module, "Industry Status
Reports," discusses automotive products, metals and
products, machinery, components, etc. The third module deals
with the analysis of products available in market, while the
module four, "Support and Macro Indicators," discusses
annexes and tables. Each module has different heads, which have
been divided into different subheads. Each subhead has been
given a code so that it can easily be identified. For example,
in the first module, subheads "Dynamics of the Emerging
Market" and "The Consumer Base" have been coded
as SD 0100 and SD 0200, respectively. Every module subhead
contains general information related to the relevant product.
The book is a very
useful compilation of facts and figures encompassing some 18
major segments, nearly 150 industry-status reviews, over 300
product analysis, covering 1,200 leading players, 2,500 leading
brands dealing over 500 million consumer with all shapes, shades
and sizes. It covers practically the entire gamut of industrial
activity. The study can be extremely useful for researchers,
students, professional consultants, economic planners, etc.
However, a market
research or market investigation cannot answer all questions
relating to forecasting. Instead of going entirely by the book,
researchers must use their imagination too. They must keep
looking for snags that may occur and methods by which accurate
answer can be elicited from respondents. If we look around, we
find many situations which a market research may not be able to
explain. There are many "whys" which may never be
fully answered. A market research can never give 100 per cent
correct answers nor will test marketing in an area, or even
multiple test marketing. Computer and mathematical models can
only ease the physical workload of computations, tabulation and
analysis. They can give pointers to correct decisions but they
will never give definite decisions.
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NEARLY
two decades ago, Arthur P. Felton wrote a landmark article on
marketing, "Conditions of Marketing Leadership," in which
he said what all marketing men have learnt from bitter experience at
one time or the other, "the marketing man is going to have to
be very" right or else he may have nothing to eat but a stream
of unsaleable product. Marketing forecasts have always been a great
challenge for manufacturers and traders. It is especially so in very
turbulent times loaded with aspirations and expectations of millions
of Indians, and Indian markets becoming focus of developed countries
as well as developing ones like China. It is said that forecasting
is like trying to drive a car blind-folded and following directions
given by a person who is looking out of the rear window. Forecasting
usually turns out to be a difficult exercise in any business. There
are two vital reasons for this. First, forecasting means predicting
the future: it cannot be known with certainly! It will be different
from what it is now! It will be different from what we expect it to
be! Secondly, each business has certain peculiarities and as such
forecasting of demand and sales bristles with certain complexities
that are peculiar to the business. One has to comprehend these
complexities in any attempt at sales forecasting. No wonder,
forecasting is a difficult proposition.
