There is pindrop silence after the bridegroom leaves with the bride from a town 40 km north of Srinagar on the Srinagar-Leh road. It was not an isolated event. Such ostentatious displays of wealth have been witnessed in several parts of the Kashmir valley, including the rural areas, in recent months. This trend is a major departure from the one prevalent between 1991 and 1994 when the baraatis would reach the bride’s place hours before sunset. They were entertained with tea, kebabs and biscuits. No typical Kashmiri wazwaan was served, as had been directed by the militants. But times have changed.

Trend two: Though the major areas in Srinagar and in some towns have been sanitised to a great extent, fear continues to haunt people in several parts of the Valley and the hilly areas of Doda, Udhampur, Poonch and Rajouri districts. In several areas of Shopian, Tral, Kulgam, Kokernag and the upper reaches of Budgam and Kupwara, people do not shut the doors of their residences during the night. They have been told by militants to keep them open as they may need their homes for shelter and food. They have been asked not to fence their orchards with barbed wire as they want to have escape routes and hideouts.

There has been a lull in militant activity in the state, notwithstanding sporadic strikes by militants resulting in the killing of civilians and security forces. Between January and July, about 410 civilians and 800 militants were killed, while between July and December last year 412 civilians and 635 militants were killed. There has been a drop in the rate of killing of security personnel. As many as 200 men of the Army, police and paramilitary forces were killed in militancy-related violence between January and June 23 this year as against 250 between July and December 2001.

The rate of infiltration has reportedly dropped by 50 per cent during the last six months as compared to the six-month period before the military build-up. As many as 1250 infiltrators had crossed into the state during the pre-military build up between July and December last. During the last six months, official reports say not more than 600 militants infiltrated into Jammu and Kashmir.

Trend three: No major fidayeen strike has been witnessed in any part of the state after the Kaluchak incident on May 14. Two reasons are being given for the pause in fidayeen attacks. First, militants have realised that fidayeen attacks do not win peoples’ support because a large number of civilians get killed. Second, each fidayeen attack results in open condemnation of Pakistan. Even the international community castigated Pakistan and its agencies for the fidayeen strikes on Parliament, the Kaluchak Army camp and the Srinagar Assembly secretariat. It is believed that General Pervez Musharraf’s promise to end support to cross-border terrorism included a signal to militant groups to suspend fidayeen strikes.

Trend four: Even those who talk of a lull in militancy-related violence keep their fingers crossed. They talk of the posters that have appeared in some parts of Kashmir telling people to complete their social engagements, including weddings, by June 25. The BSF authorities, while confirming the circulation of these posters, explain that the militants were planning to launch an offensive against the government, politicians and security forces. The current period was being utilised for storing arms, ammunition and explosives. Government agencies, basing their reports on the field sources, express the fear that militants may step up subversive activities during the one-month long annual Amarnath yatra, commencing from the third week of July, and during the Assembly poll due in October.

Peoples’ fears in this regard do not seem to be unfounded when vast areas in various parts of the state have witnessed deployment of additional troops on the border. These troops were withdrawn from rural areas. The state has no surplus police force and the Centre has not been in a position to send additional companies of paramilitary forces.

During his recent visit to Srinagar Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee announced that the state had been given clearance for raising two more police battalions. "It will take more than a year to raise and train fresh recruits and till then militants may cause added death and destruction in the state," says Ghulam Ahmed, a trader in Srinagar.

Trend five: While the size of graveyards and the number of graves in Kashmir have increased in geometric progression, the rise of new shopping centres and new residential colonies has been equally been drastic. As more than 12,000 civilians, about 12,000 militants and 2500 foreign mercenaries were killed in the militancy-related events and incidents in the state between 1990 and the middle of June 2002, the increase in the number of graves is understandable.

What is intriguing is the way people of every economic strata have raised shopping centres and constructed several thousand new houses in the summer capital and in the three major towns of Anantnag, Baramula and Sopore. In these shopping centres, foreign electric and electronic gadgets, garments and perfumes are available.

Lands and houses of Hindu migrants have been purchased in different parts of the Valley by the local people. About Rs 1000 crores have been invested in the purchase of these estates and residential houses. Barring a handful of cases, where the migrants had to sell their immovable property for a song, others received reasonable amounts. This helped them to built or buy houses and flats in Jammu, Delhi, Faridabad, Gurgaon, Chandigarh, Bangalore, Mumbai and other parts of the country. Several hundred families have constructed small houses at the foothills of Udhampur and in the most undeveloped colonies in Jammu.

According to police officers, "new houses and shopping centres have come up mainly from the funds that flowed into Kashmir from Pakistan and from Delhi." The police officers explain that "funds were sent from Pakistan for sustaining the proxy war and from Delhi to contain it." The segment that got the maximum benefit was the one connected with militant outfits.

Trend six: Even with the urge for peace and normalcy touching new heights in Kashmir, not many dare to kick the rebels in their shin.

Right now the rebel outfits are in disarray. The split in Hizbul Mujahideen, after its chief commander Abdul Majid Dar and his three colleagues were expelled, and the rift between the foreign mercenaries and the local militants have seemingly caused confusion among the rebels.

People in Kashmir have undergone a change in their perception. They think and act in terms of what suits them and not what would suit Pakistan, as was the case earlier. This change in the attitude has made them conscious about their health and education of their children. There is a race for admission in professional colleges and for jobs in the government departments, despite the fact that nearly two lakh youths found jobs in state and Central government offices, besides banks and public sector undertakings during the last 13 years.

Trend seven: Hope for mass surrender of local militants in phases has not materialised. In fact, the rate of surrender of the rebels has dropped during the last two years. The surrender figure had touched a new high between 1995 and 1996 when the political process took off with the announcement of the Assembly poll schedule. During these two years 1,256 militants had surrendered. And these very militants turned the tide against those gun-toting youths who were not prepared to bid farewell to arms. Since 1998, the surrender trend showed a marked decline. In 1998, about 182 militants surrendered before the security forces which was followed by 108 in 1999, 104 in 2000, 85 in 2001 and during the last six months not more than 58 rebels laid down their weapons, which included 31 in Kupwara recently.

Prior to the formation of the NC government in 1996, these renegades received open patronage from the security forces and the government agencies. They received funds from these agencies for their help in identifying the rebels and getting them eliminated.

However, the ruling National Conference leaders initiated a campaign against these renegade militants forcing the security forces and the government agencies to leave them in a lurch. Some of them rejoined militant groups, others fled temporarily from the Valley after many of them fell to the bullets of pro-Pak militants.

Only two top renegades managed to get elected to the Legislative Council and the 0Assembly. These renegades usually called Ikhwanis indulged in excesses and extortion and lost the sympathy of those who had treated them as messiahs who could rid the Valley of the menace of terrorism.

Once the rebels found that the promise of getting them suitably rehabilitated was not honoured, many, who were preparing to lay down their arms, developed cold feet.

Trend eight: The rate of Pak firing and shelling marked a new phase in the conflict between India and Pakistan. Instead of war, the two sides fought fierce gun battles on the border. In fact, the rate of shelling and firing witnessed a marked upward trend during the military buildup on the border. During the pre-military build up period, Pakistan forces would fire anything between 500 and 1500 mortar shells per month and 15,000 to 20,000 rounds from small arms and heavy calibre weapons a month.

According to Defence Ministry sources, Pak troops fired nearly 30,000 artillery and mortar shells from across Poonch, Rajouri and Akhnoor sectors, 5,000 from across Kashmir border and 15,000 from across Siachen, Dras and Kargil sectors between May and June 20,2002. More than 20 lakh rounds were fired from across the entire LoC and the IB during the last six months.

The main aim behind escalation in the level of Pak shelling and firing was to provide fire cover to the militants who were pushed into Jammu and Kashmir. It was aimed also at highlighting the Kashmir dispute and cause losses to the Indian farmers.

If not anything else, the heavy Pak firing and shelling resulted in the migration of over 80,000 people from their border villages in the entire Jammu sector. Migration from border villages in the Kashmir valley was very small because the Pak gunners concentrated on the Jammu sector.

These trends are nothing but shifting colours in the kaleidoscope of the Pak-sponsored proxy war. For the time being, militants continue to indulge in excesses, extortion and carry out gruesome massacres. In Pulwama district alone, militants, believed to be activists of Lashkar-e-Toiba, had kidnapped and killed 40 civilians, most of them dubbed as police informers during the last six months.

No doubt a majority of 3,000 militants active in Jammu and Kashmir, are plagued by uncertainty because of confusing signals coming from across the border, yet they continue to be trigger happy.