WITH the Jammu and Kashmir elections barely four months away, political activity in this sensitive state appears to be reviving. The first to seize the advantage, it seems, has been the Awami National Conference (ANC) headed by veteran G.M. Shah. A series of meetings organised in the Valley in the recent past indicate that Shah and his supporters are keen to provide a democratic alternative in the blood-drenched Valley.

The ANC sees the opportunity as a case of "now or never". The breaking of a long silence by G. M. Shah is self-explanatory, more so when the ANC had remained politically inactive for over a decade because of terrorist activity. Despite this, Shah remained in touch with his party workers at all times and preserved his cadre.

The strategy, it seems, is two fold. First, hold intra-Kashmir conferences before the elections, and second, field new faces in the elections with the "Save Kashmir" slogan. Shah had tried last year to hold a Kashmir conference and had invited participation from both sides of the Line of Control. However, at the very last moment both India and Pakistan denied visas to the delegates. The meet was aimed at engineering interaction between the people so as to frame politically workable and feasible recommendations for an amicable and peaceful solution to the Kashmir tangle. It is pertinent to mention here that on June 11, 1952, late Sheikh Mohd Abdullah in his speech had said "people on the other side of the cease-fire line— Muzaffarabad, Mirpore, Poonch and Gilgit—had struggled jointly with us. This principle will not, therefore, apply to only one part of the state but also to all people of the state, including those brethren of ours who have have been separated form us and whose eyes have been shut and tongues gagged in Pakistan." He had said it when the Basic Principles Committee report was being adopted by the constituent assembly of the state. It is on this principle that Shah has conceived the plan to convene a people-to-people meet in Kashmir.

Interestingly, Dr Farooq Abdullah and Shah have revived their strained family relations after 17 years. Following a vertical split in the NC in 1982, Shah had formed NC (Khalida). The name was later changed to Awami National Conference in 1986. Shah, however, says :"It is a social patch-up with Farooq not a political one. He has his own political agenda and I have my own." Pressures are being mounted from different quarters within the Sheikh family and from well-wishers to reunite ANC and NC.

Political analysts feel that if both the ANC and the NC contest together with their respective agendas and seat-sharing arrangements, the other political parties in the state like the Congress, the BJP and other regional parties shall have to fight against this family alliance by forming a joint front. But the chances of forming a joint front seem bleak because opponents have different ideologies. This family alliance will probably also frustrate the cacophonous All Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC), headed by Prof Abdul Gani Bhat who is capable of creating hurdles in the elections.

The Jammu & Kashmir Pradesh Congress Committee is the only party left which has to play the role of the opposition party in the state. The Congress is at the crossroads and has to face a tough time and Ghulam Nabi Azad will have to try his level best to prove his political acumen in Kashmir politics. Factionalism bedevils the party and besides keeping his flocks together, Azad has to face Dr Farooq Abdullah from one side and his former colleague Mufti Mohd Sayeed (who has floated his own regional party—the People Democratic Party (PDP)), from the other. It is an opportune time for Mufti Sayeed to settle scores with Azad at the hustings. Both are known for their political enmity when Mufti Sayeed was in the Congress.

The ANC has its presence in all the districts of the state and is likely to make Dr Farooq Abdullah’s ‘non governance’ an election issue. No doubt, the NC is cadre based, but it has lost its public image due to poor performance and its alliance with the BJP-led government at the Centre. Moreover, Dr Farooq’s autonomy proposal, which was the main election plank in the last elections, has lost its relevance after being rejected by the Centre. As a result, he is left with no plank in the forthcoming elections.

Dr Farooq Abdullah has already groomed Omar Abdullah as his successor and has cleared the decks for his son’s return to the state as chief minister. To evade charges of backtracking on his professed stand against dynastic rule, he has accommodated the children of his senior party colleagues in his party rank. They are: Sakina Itoo, Khalid Najib Suhrawardy, Sajjid Kichloo, Ifran Shah, Sajjad Shafi, Raman Matoo, Ajat Shatru Singh etc. Despite the efforts that he has made to smoothen the path for Omar Abdullah, all is not well for Omar Abdullah to govern the trouble-torn state.

G.M. Shah’s son, Muzaffar Shah, trained in TATA house, too, has entered politics. Muzaffar Shah is well known for his political maturity and wants to prove his political worth in the present scenario. But Dr Farooq Abdullah is apprehensive of Muzaffar Shah because he could prove to be a threat to his son Omar Abdullah. Some senior leaders in the NC are not happy with this move. Kashmir watchers feel if the political rivalry in the Sheikh family doesn’t not end here there is the possibility of the power tussle continuing in the third generation of this family, too. However. G.M. Shah’s wife, Khalida Shah, the eldest sister of Dr Farooq Abdullah, can play a vital role in resolving the family rivalry if she joins active politics. The daughter of late Sheikh Mohd Abdullah needs no introduction to political circles in Kashmir and may well prove to be G.M. Shah’s trump card.