Double digit export growth in Feb likely
NEW DELHI, March 14 — India, for the first time in the current fiscal, is likely to achieve a double digit export growth rate in February, Commerce Minister Ramakrishna Hegde told PTI today.

Market boom will continue: expert
NEW DELHI, March 14 — The post-Budget boom being witnessed in the capital markets would continue at least for a few months if there is no threat to the BJP-led coalition government at the Centre, Delhi Stock Exchange President Ashok Kumar Agarwal said today.

Standardising services
By D.R.Kohli
PRODUCTS and services and consumers have become smarter. Smart cards and smart cars are already here, smart houses and smart highways are just around the corner.

This rally is without industrial revival
By J. C. Anand
THE post-budget rally is slowing down, partially due to profit-taking by traders.

‘The Secret Lives of Everyday Things’
Making a car takes about as much energy as driving it 21,000 km.

Double digit export growth in Feb likely

NEW DELHI, March 14 (PTI)— India, for the first time in the current fiscal, is likely to achieve a double digit export growth rate in February, Commerce Minister Ramakrishna Hegde told PTI today.

Though exports growth had registered negative growth of 5.08 per cent in the first half of the current fiscal, it has picked up since November.

In January, exports registered the highest growth of 8.51 per cent for the current fiscal.

"Our export growth in January was the highest in the entire Asian region. Even China registered a negative 2 per cent growth in exports in January", he said.

The coming exim policy modification, slated for April 1, would try to cut down transaction costs of exports in an effort to provide level-playing field for Indian exporters, Hegde said.

None of the existing export promotion schemes would be discontinued in the modification, while he would hold a meeting soon with Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha for continuing the 9 per cent pre and post-shipment credit rates.

"Transaction costs are a big factor against export growth. Enormous time and money are spent on exports. Unless we provide a level-playing field to exporters how can we compete with other countries?" he said.

Hegde said a committee had been formed under N.K. Singh, Secretary in the Prime Minister’s Office, to look into the issue of cutting down transaction costs and its report was expected before April 1.

The Cabinet Committee on International Trade, whose first meeting scheduled on March 9 was put off in view of Hegde’s visit to Bangladesh, will also look into the issue.

The Centre also planned to get the State Governments involved in export efforts as they were currently not taking interest in export growth, he said.

"We are working out a plan to make them more interested in exports. There is scope to bring some similarity in various taxes (levied by States) like sales tax, purchase tax, turnover tax, entry tax, octroi and municipal tax," the minister said.

"Even power tariff is high in some States. If there can be some kind of similarity for exporters on this issue, it will help a lot," he said.

Market boom will continue: expert

NEW DELHI, March 14 (PTI, UNI) — The post-Budget boom being witnessed in the capital markets would continue at least for a few months if there is no threat to the BJP-led coalition government at the Centre, Delhi Stock Exchange (DSE) President Ashok Kumar Agarwal said today.

"Except for the threat to stability of the government, all other aspects were working in favour of positive market sentiment," Mr Agarwal said at a discussion on "Budget 1999-2000" organised by the DSE and the Capital Foundation Society.

Especially factors like continuation of the reform process, rationalisation of the tax structure and tax sops announced in the Budget were in favour of sustaining boom in the capital market, he said

In the first four days after the Budget, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) brought in more funds into the capital markets than what they did during the previous four months.

Tax reliefs announced in the Budget on UTI schemes and for mutual funds, removal of anomaly in the capital gains tax and rationalisation of tax structure have added to FII confidence.

The Participants included Prof Ashok Lahiri, Director, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, Mr Bharat Bhushan Sahny, Vice-President, DSE, Mr Sitaram Yechury of the CPM and Mr Satvinder Singh Sodhi, Executive Director, DSE.

Experts said two key sets of initiatives in the Budget that address the question of demand are in the area of housing and rural development. Increased activity in the housing sector was expected to generate growth in associated industries.

Supplier industries like steel and cement are likely to benefit from a surge in housing activity.

However, they cautioned that the continued improvement on the stock exchanges depended on a number of other factors as well. Some of these are a good monsoon, the impact the concessions to the housing sector make, a definite improvement in economic activity, exchange rate stability and corporate profitability.

Clearance of certain crucial legislation such as the patents Bill and the Insurance Regulatory Authority Bill in the Budget session would bring in fresh foreign inflow.

Mr Agarwal opined that the rally in pharma ceutical and software shares would be sustained. The former due to the introduction of a new patents regime and the latter because it was rumoured in the markets that Mr Sinha would impose a 5 per cent cess on software shares.

He said the disinvestment news, unlike in the previous Budget, was being viewed positively by the exchanges.

Prof Lahiri and Mr Agarwal said the market was disappointed with the surcharge levied on income tax of residents and corporates.

Mr Sodhi wondered whether a coalition government would be able to carry out the promised second generation of reforms. Describing the Budget as lobby-free, Mr Sodhi said the Finance Minister had done an excellent job by way of rationalisation of indirect taxes, abolition of stamp duty on debt instruments, exemption of mutual funds from tax on income and lack of projectionist measures would benefit the stock market.

Standardising services

Consumer Rights Day falls today

By D.R.Kohli

PRODUCTS and services and consumers have become smarter. Smart cards and smart cars are already here, smart houses and smart highways are just around the corner. These exciting new technologies are designed to help consumers. Standards play an extraordinarily important role in protecting the consumer by taking into consideration requirement of safety, reliability, compatability with other products, fitness for intended purpose, quality and environmental impact.

If safety, compatability, reliability and quality are clearly crucial factors for consumers, value for money is another gain the consumers make from standards. In today`s time of open economy, worldwide standards create the conditions for open trade which puts manufacturers and the consumers in a win-win situation. For the manufacturers, the cost of seeking to satisfy different national market needs is reduced and the consumer benefits from competition among suppliers vying to meet his needs.

These rapidly changing technologies in the products have also made the customers uncomfortable when the standardisation of services is inadequate and codes of practice unknown and ineffective. The consumer is unsure about what really reasonable services entails.

A common consumer requires to use a service various times during the day, be it in a shop, at the bank, using a phone, seeing a doctor, purchasing a train ticket, renting a house, using a credit card etc. The list is endless and consumers barely notice or are conscious of availing the services. However, the customers feel helpless when faced with such situations of not being properly served. It is imperative to protect the rights of consumers if being provided with services which fulfil their needs. Standards may be less usable than product standards and hard to create but their guarantee will make life much more comfortable in many situations.

The consumers are no longer content to purchase a refrigerator that simply chills food. They want that it should also be delivered on time, installed without damaging the kitchen floor and be energy-efficient and most important wants quick after sales service in case of any trouble. The instructions for user should be easy to understand and comprehensive.

The standards may help the consumers meet their need and expectations. Out of approximate 17000 standards published so far by BIS,about 600 find utility as complimentary standards in various service sectors. These sectors include transport; air-conditioning and refrigeration; hospital and medical care service; fire safety; information technology; lighting,telecom services; tourism and hotels; water supply and sewerage. Special mention may be made about guidelines for quality management for hospitals (30 bedded) which covers OPD; emergency services; diagnostic and blood transfusion service; wards; nursing services and operation theatre; hospital support etc. A large number of branch of some banks and also Apollo hospital, Chennai have already got quality system Certification from BIS.

Keeping in mind the consumers welfare, BIS in collaboration with the World Gold Council is all set to officially test and "hall mark"the quality of gold by middle of 1999. This will protect the customer in terms of purity of gold supplied to them in the market.

The author is Deputy Director General, Bureau of Indian Standards.

This rally is without industrial revival

By J. C. Anand

THE post-budget rally is slowing down, partially due to profit-taking by traders. On February 26, a day before the Budget, the sensitive index had closed at 3233.9 points. On March 10, it was 3743.4 points. In other words, it had gained 509.5 points (15.75 per cent) in eight trading days. But then, there was profit-taking by traders and the index closed at 3702.8 points last week. Even after the profit-taking, the index is higher by 14.49 per cent. The crucial question is whether this rally would keep on during this fortnight?

There are many analysts who believe that the sensitive index would cross 3,900 points. No doubt there are some positive factors for sustaining the buoyancy. The BJP-led coalition government has been able to prove its majority in the Lok Sabha. Some important legislative measures have been passed by Parliament; the more important of these measures are the Patents (Amendment) Bill and the Companies (Amendment) Bill. Even the technical correction was relatively a minor one. The successful listing of Infosys Technologies’ American Depository Receipts on the New York’s Nasaq stock exchange was a good omen.

But it would be difficult to agree with the view that the rally would touch and cross 4000 points on the sensitive index. The present rally is largely on the basis of market sentiment and heavy bullish trading. It is unsupported by any industrial revival. In fact, this rally would not have come on the basis of Budget proposals alone had it not been aided by the paring of bank rate by the Reserve Bank on March 1, 1999. The rally is based more on what these measures might achieve in reviving the industry rather than any actual revival so far.

The latest quick estimates by the Central Statistical Organisation indicate that the industrial production continues to totter. While the growth in industrial production during the first10 months of the financial year 1998-99 registered a 3.3. per cent industrial growth (as against 6.9 per cent for the same period in 1997-98), the industrial production has slowed down to 2.1 per cent in January 1999.

The corporate results for the accounting year closing on December 31, 1998 or on March 31, 1999, would be rather dismal. The third quarter results already announced confirm this foreboding. Apart from a few leading companies of the multinational genre engaged in pharma, speciality chemicals, fast-moving commercial goods and some leading Indian companies in the software sector, the corporate sector may not be able to even repeat its past dividend record.

Whether the Budget and a cut in lending rates by the banks revive the market during the next six months would depend on three major factors: continued political stability at the Centre, effective and sustained implementation of the Budget proposals and industrial revival programme, and a moderately good monsoon this year too. In case the USA lifts its sanctions against India, both the industry and the stock market would receive a good boost.

The software and multinational pharma companies are, of course, expected to do well. The software companies are also likely to maintain their present buoyancy. The multinational pharma companies may slide a little during this fortnight, partly due to profit-taking by the traders and partly due to renewed controversy over the Patents (Amendment) Bill in the light of the 167th Report of the Law Commission on the Patent (Amendment) Bill 1998.

Partial booking in scrips, which have gone very high even in the software and multinational pharma sectors, would be in order but the long-term investors may wait for another fortnight so that they can take advantage of the reduced long-term capital gains tax proposed in the Budget proposals for the financial year 1999-2000.

Those who look out for good dividend return from equity shares may invest in housing loan companies with good fundamentals. CAN FIN Homes appears to me to be a good investment bet. It is quoting around Rs 13-Rs 14 level at present. Last year it paid 22 per cent dividend, and it appears almost certain that the company would maintain it this year too. It has a paid-up equity capital of Rs 2048.5 lakh and its net profit for the first nine months of its accounting year is Rs 1042.8 lakh (as against Rs 899.5 Lakh for the corresponding period last year). It has a book value of Rs 23/- per equity share of Rs 10. The 22 per cent dividend (which the company is expected to announce) would bring in a return of 15.71 per cent in a period of less than six months, which would also be tax-free. There might be a bit of appreciation too in its market value when its annual results are announced.

Replace old aircraft

By K.R. Wadhwaney

THE "black box" of the ill-fated Air Force AN-32 transport plane, which crashed near Indira Gandhi International Airport (IGIA) recently, has been found. A court of inquiry, headed by Air Commodore R.V. Kumar, has begun investigation. The Directorate-General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) is also conducting its own inquiry to determine the cause/causes that led to the accident killing all persons on board and also a few present at the construction site.

The post-crash inquiry has been progressing on set pattern. It is: (1) Did the aircraft conform to safety standards? (2) Was any pilot (human) error involved? (3) Was there a failure in communication between ground control and air? The questions will be solved soon.

What is, however, of paramount importance is to determine whether age-old aircraft are worthy enough to fly in the Indian air-space. Just as human body, which decays with age, so does aircraft. Is it prudent to fly old aircraft? The inquiries reveal that a sizeable number of aircraft in the Air Force and in commercial airlines are too old to be pressed into operation. The sooner they are got rid off, the better will be the scenario in the aviation set-up.

The problems for old aircraft multiply because ground facilities are neither adequate nor gadgets are the latest. In the age of satellite, everything has to be ultra-modern. But when there are hat-tricks of problems — old aircraft, inadequate ground facilities and poor gadgets — the chances of accidents increase manifold.

The government, particularly the Defence Ministry and the Civil Aviation Ministry, must examine ages of fleet available with the Air Force and national airlines.

Cargo plane accident

An Air Force cargo plane flying from Paris to Bangalore via Jeddah caught fire after landing at Chennai Airport on the night of March 5-6. The cockpit crew and an agent of operation all escaped. The technician sustained minor injuries and he was provided first aid in the hospital.

BA office shifted

A number of airlines are contemplating shifting their offices from Delhi to nearby locations like Gurgaon. British Airways is the first airline which has shifted from DLF Centre (New Delhi) to DLF Plaza (Gurgaon).

Announcing the move, airline’s General Manager South Asia Kevin Steele said: "As a growing business we need additional working space which is of a high quality. New offices in Gurgaon provide an improved environment, better training, communication and other facilities".

‘The Secret Lives of Everyday Things’

Making a car takes about as much energy as driving it 21,000 km. Some 700 different materials — half of them hazardous — go into making a computer. Producing a US cheeseburger requires more than 2,600 litres of water. Aluminium used in soft-drink cans is so energy-intensive that it is called "congealed electricity".

Strange? Shocking? But this is true. These figures come from a new book called "Stuff: The Secret Lives of Everyday Things" written by John C. Ryan and Alan Thein Durning. Across 86 pages, it explains how normal consumption of everyday items leaves a deep impact on the environment of Planet Earth.

Consider the price of each simple T-shirt: ten percent of the world’s pesticide use is on cotton farms. Making polyester generates 10 times the polyesters weight in air pollution. But the worst environmental impacts over a shirt’s lifetime arise in the laundry room where it is washed and dried.

For a typical computer system, it takes at least as much energy to make a year’s worth of paper as it does to run the computer for that time. Computers have probably increased the consumption of paper and energy, despite talk of the paperless office. — TWNF

Foreign aid

Does aid really go to the small farmers? Or does it go just to the "big boys" — the judges, the magistrates, the members of Parliament, the union chairman? Then, what is the impact of aided projects based on the use of high price imported inputs — as they often are? Besides, land reforms promoted by aid-agencies are generally pretentious and do not bring any real benefit to the poor.

Impressive statistics are often cited regarding the number of rural poor who have benefited from projects financed by aid agencies. What is forgotten is that these statistics sometimes include all people living in the project area. This is certainly not a proper way of evaluating the number of beneficiaries, as many such projects are known to leave untouched a majority of the poor.

Another reason why the number of ‘rural poor beneficiaries’ is exaggerated is that often the term small-farmer is defined in too liberal a way, to also include relatively better-off medium farmers and in some cases even big land owners.

One U.S.House appropriation subcommittee investigated a livestock project in Honduras, which had received three successive loans, totalling $23.2 million from the soft-lending window of the World Bank, the IDA. Investigations revealed that the average size of loans for all three projects ranged from $25,000 to $59,000 and that the vast majority of farmers receiving credit from the project owned more than 375 acres of land.—TWNF

Euro vs dollar

The newly-introduced Euro, backed by the European Union’s formidable monetary reserves and favourable trade flows, will pose a strong challenge to the mighty US Dollar’s hegemony in the coming years.

"EU represents an economy as large as that of the USA and will be even larger when the 15 EU countries become its members," C Fred Bergsten, Director of the Washington-based Institute for International Economics, said in the latest issue of the economic journal Financial affairs.

As soon as the European Central Bank (ECB) stabilises, Euro will become a global financial asset leading to a portfolio diversification from dollars into euro worth a whopping $ 500 billion to one trillion dollars, he said calling for a sound institutional framework to deal with it. —PTI

A lender

The global economy nees a lender of last resort as capital flows away in a crisis not only from countries following wrong policies but also those with sound policies and framework.

The lender of last resort will exchange surveillance over capital flows to ensure that sound policies are in place in the countries in which the capital flows originate, says Guitian in the latest issue of "Finance Development", an IMF publication.

Maintaining order in the world economy in absence of a global authority is a great challenge and the most influential countries of the world should accept responsibility for capital flows. —PTI

Aptech

The grapevine has it that this software company had performed exceptionally well during the current financial year and more importantly, there is going to be a major announcement from the management of this company shortly. Punters are taking up positions predicting a price of Rs 1500 within six months. Any takers?

Recon

Recon is a low profile Bangalore-based Indian bulk drug manufacturing company which would not normally have figured on the grapevine circuit. But when there are rumours that a pharmaceutical MNC is eyeing it for a takeover, it surely merits another look. Watch out for further development on this front.

Banking stocks

The once favourite banking stocks are receiving rather shabby treatment at Dalal Street these days. One of the reasons the grapevine has it, is that Moody’s latest report on the Indian banking sector which does not paint a very rosy picture. However, the moot question here is — should such reports by Western organisations on Indian industries need to be taken at face value? Seems like the colonial hang-up still exists!

Unilever

The grapevine has it that the Unilever group is bidding to takeover Palmolive in the international market.Now, one wonders where that leaves Colgate-Palmolive in the context of the Indian market where it is struggling for survival in the wake of Hindustan livers’s Pepsodent onslaught.

Pentafour

It is an open secret that operators have been ruling the roost at the counter of Pentafour Software. the grapevine has it that one of the biggest operators at the BSE has been badly trapped at this counter and is unloading a lot of this company’s shares to meet his payment obligation. Interestingly, the shares he is unloading are being accumulated by another bull cartel. Food for thought.

PSU

A Mumbai-based investment "guru" opines that it is only because of the haphazard manner in which successive governments have mismanaged the PSU disinvestment programme that the share prices of fundamentally solid PSUs like Hindustan Petroleum and Indian Oil are quoting so low. He foresees their revival soon, and what’s more, he’s putting his money where his mouth is!

Bausch & Lomb

After the bad publicity it received following the Raybans pullout, this company is slowly but steadily rebuilding its reputation. Now, considering the excellent quality of its product and its obvious brand equity it should not be long before this company hits the gravy trail again. After all, quality always prevails.

FIIs

The grapevine has it that once the Budget hurdle is crossed and unless Sinha again gets it all wrong, huge FII funds could flow into India. Pray why, one may well ask? Well, the grapevine hears that the post-Pokhran economic sanctions will be lifted by September. Food for thought.

Padmini Poly

I sent 100 shares of Padmini Polymers with Folio No 062512, certificate No 465963 to company’s office 240, Okhla Industrial Estate, Phase III, New Delhi for transfer on 20.2.98. Till to-date I have not received shares back despite many reminders.

Ajay Kumar Sharma

Kapurthala

McDowell Krest

After receiving firm commitment and repayment schedule from Mc Dowell Krest Finance Ltd. (which is a 100 per cent subsidiary of U.B. group). Company Law Board and RBI Chennai directed to repay FDRs accordingly. But company has not been repaying despite repeated reminders in respect of FDR No 46337 & 46436.

N.P. Garg

Khanna

Rama Newsprint

I hold 25 debentures of Rama Newsprint & Papers Ltd with Folio No RM-123936, distinctive No 7780526 to 7780550. Three instalments of interest on these debentures from 1.10.1997 has not been paid by the company till to-date.

Narinder Mohan Dewan

Chandigarh

UTI

I am a member of UTI monthly income plan 1997 (III) with Folio No 4001780025104, I have written several letters to "Investor Services Ltd, Kanchan Junga Building, Bara Khamba Road, New Delhi" regarding sending me Form 16A in respect of Income Tax deducted at source out of Monthly Income Plan 1997 (III).

Adarsh Gupta

Panchkula

‘Typhoon’ use barred

NEW DELHI, March 14 (PTI) — A Delhi court has restrained a local firm from using the "Typhoon" trade mark of a well-known German multi-national Dominique Bonk.

Additional District Judge S.N. Dhingra said the local firm Sadh Engineering was restrained from marketing any product under the brand name "Typhoon" or using cartons which were similar to cartons of the German company.

The direction was issued on a suit filed by Dominique Bonk, through its counsel Meera Bhatia, seeking injunction against the use of brand name by Sadh Engineering manufacturing and selling multi-media speakers.

The German company alleged that by using its trade mark, the Indian firm had violated the provisions of the Trade and Merchandise Marks Act and the Indian Copyright Act.

Roadshows put on hold

NEW DELHI, March 14 (PTI) — The government has put on hold its plan to organise roadshows for the 48 oil blocks offered under new exploration licensing policy in Japan, while going ahead with its shows in Perth this month-end.

"As we can conduct the roadshows in only one country at a time, we have put on hold our plans to conduct roadshows in Japan and we are targeting to have the shows in Perth by the end of March as planned earlier," Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas Santosh Kumar gangwar told PTI in an interview.

Inflation up

NEW DELHI, March 14 (PTI) — Higher prices of food products resulted in a 0.12 per cent rise in the annual rate of inflation to 5.26 per cent for the week ended February 27, maintaining the rising trend for the fourth consecutive week. Inflation, based on the wholesale price index stood at 5.26 per cent (provisional) compared to 5.14 per cent (P) in the previous week and 4.67 per cent in the corresponding week last year. The rate has been moving upwards since January 30 when it was 4.58 per cent.

Rally planned
From Our Correspondent

LUDHIANA, March 14 — The Ludhiana Small-Scale Manufacturers Association at a meeting held here yesterday decided to organise a Laghu Udyog Bachao rally on March 17.

IT seminar
Tribune News Service

CHANDIGARH, March 14 — Mr K.K. Narula, Chief General Manager, SBI, Chandigarh circle, inaugurated a seminar on "Emerging business opportunities in information technology" for entrepreneurs here today. He said the bank’s Industrial Finance Branch, Sector 22, will meet the needs of the software industry. Dr N.S. Kalsi, IAS, was also present.

SBP
From Our Correspondent

PATIALA, March 14 — The State Bank of Patiala has revised the interest rates on deposits from March 15. The revised rate for 15 days to 45 days is 5 per cent, 46 days to 90 days is 6 per cent, 91 days to less than 1 year is 7 per cent, one to two years 9 per cent, two to 3 years 9.5 per cent and three years and above is 10.5 per cent.