Rural meteorology
By Yogendra Agnihotri

INDIAN society was essentially agrarian during the ancient times. Rural economy depended on agricultural yield and a bumper harvest was not only in the interest of the farmer but also of society, in general. And the amount of rainfall was imperative in deciding what a farmer would reap at the end of the season. Those were the days when scientific meteorological predictions were unheard of and modern irrigation techniques unknown.

Even at present, India has only 30 per cent of its cultivated area under irrigation. The rest of the land depends on rain for water. Weather, thus, plays a crucial role. Crop losses can be substantially reduced through timely and accurate weather prediction.

Strange though it may sound, yet till date peasants do not generally pay heed to the meteorological office predictions or what announcers forecast on TV. Gifted with a rich heritage, they have devised indigenous ways of predicting rainfall, taking cues from the wisdom of their forefathers and from methods documented in ancient scriptures.

Some of these indices may appear illogical, others outrightly preposterous as these farmers have no scientific rationale to back up their findings, most of which entirely depend on natural phenomenon and the behaviour of fauna... Yet, the man in the countryside swears by it. Here are some of the interesting indicators:

If the visible spectrum or halo around the sun has a greater diameter than that around the moon, rainfall can be predicted within a few days. If the spectrum has a larger diameter, rainfall is assured. (Door sama nikat jal, nikat sama rasatal).

Accumulation of layered formation of clouds in the South-eastern direction, accompanied by winds blowing from the south may bring rainfall in a day or two.

If the onset of the Hindi month of Jyestha is too hot, good monsoon can be predicted for that season.

Ghag, a famous poet of the 17th century, had also evolved certain criteria for forecasting rainfall. These too find immense popularity among the agrarian community. Sample a few of his observations:

Bahmun badal baan, Dakhina peleyi jaan (Just as a Brahmin goes away as soon as he gets his dakshina similarly rains go away when southerlies blow).

If the days are hot and dew falls at night, chances of rainfall are remote.

When cloudy days are followed by clear night sky and the easterlies blow strong, there will not be any rainfall.

When a rainbow forms in the direction of Bengal (direction of which is relative from where the sky is gazed), rainfall is expected within 24 hours.

During the rainy season, if clouds appear on Friday and Saturday, then rainfall is predicted either on Sunday or Monday.

Bhadra meghe vipreet vaye, se din vrishti se bachae (if in the month of Bhadra i.e. mid August to mid September, the sky is overcast and the wind blows in opposite direction, rainfall is assured).

Animals and fauna have also been given due respect and are supposed to be gifted with natural ‘sensors’. Their behaviour is scrutinised by those who toil in the field to reap a rich harvest. Some of these make an interesting reading. For example:

If ants start transporting their eggs, rain is expected soon.

Early rainfall is predicted if centipedes emerge from their burrows in swarms and start carrying their eggs.

Rainy season can be said to have ended when cobwebs appear on tomato and Frenchbean crop as also on the grass.

Swelling in the lower portion of camel’s limbs is also an indicator of rainfall. Similarly cows running amok looking skywards, is also indicative of sudden and sharp showers.

A flock of sparrow, frolicking in the sand is indicative of rain and dry weather is predicted if sparrow are seen taking a dip in water.

Movement of leeches in water also provides an indicator to a sudden turn in weather.

Though most of the farmers in the country are illiterate, yet they possess unquestioned wisdom mixed with practical experience. They also understand that more ‘evolved’ and educated urban brethern would dismiss these desi indicators as nothing but some rustic nonsense, as these observations would not be able to withstand the onslaught of scientific rationale. But so long as they are able to gauge the mood of the rain gods they do not bother. Tractor-load of bumper harvest and not the predictions of meteorologists matter to them.