Which way will the Canadian Punjabis sway?

Viney Sharma

Move over dinner diplomacy, it’s time to tango on Indian beats. That was the message waltzing at a recent press gallery dinner, as New Democratic Party (NDP) chieftain Jagmeet Singh outdid Liberals and Conservatives with his Bhangra moves — scoring some ‘brownie points’ in the global press.

The Canadians love to show their moves. However, such instances are rare in the Indian political arena except for occasions like Prime Minister Narendra Modi playing drums alongside a Japanese drummer in Tokyo in 2014 at a Tata Consultancy Services’ event.

On a wit-laced evening, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau didn’t spare even himself when it came to controversies surrounding him, especially his trip to India. Trudeau mockingly admitted, “India trip was the beginning of an end.” Perhaps it was! Days later, Liberals were reduced to seven seats in the Ontario Provincial elections as the Conservatives managed a landslide victory. Liberals couldn’t even garner enough numbers to be the opposition party in Ontario, while the NDP got 40 seats in its kitty.

Speculation is rife whether the rise of the NDP has split the Indian diaspora, giving Progressive Conservatives an edge. Political parties across the board are redrawing their strategies to woo the Indian community that is traditionally known to have supported the Liberals. Even as the country is some 490 days away from the federal elections, key issues for psephologists from the Indo-Canadian community have emerged: Can 2019 thaw the Indo-Canadian relations? Whom will Punjabis vote for in the 2019 Canada elections? Why Liberals are no good for the economies of both countries?

Bilateral concerns

President of Indo-Canadian Chamber of Commerce Kanwar Dhanjal partly answers the concerns raised with regard to bilateral relations. “During the Con-servatives’ era, both countries had signed some 35 trade agreements. Stephan Harper was the Prime Minister. In the last four years since the Liberals took over, only eight agreements have been signed,” says Dhanjal, who was part of Justin Trudeau’s controversial trip to India in February this year.

A glance at the trade numbers between India and Canada vis-à-vis Canada and China, underlines why India cold-shouldered the Canadian Prime Minister. Sample this: The two-way trade in goods between Canada and India was worth nearly $8.5 billion in 2017. As per a report by the International Monetary Fund, China is Canada’s second-largest trading partner with more than C$85 billion (or 4.2 per cent of the GDP) in bilateral goods traded in 2016. Canada’s merchandise exports to China have grown by an average of 12 per cent annually since 2000, compared to 1 per cent with the United States.

China’s growing influence in Canada, with Liberals offering special incentives to Chinese companies is what worries India.

Ironically, despite humongous Indian diaspora, including several members in the Canadian Parliament, and four members in the Trudeau Cabinet, trade ties have hardly seen any escalation, worrying exporters and importers of both countries, especially in times when the trade war garners pace.

“Nearly 4 per cent of Canadians claim to be of Indian descent, with 40,000 Indians migrating to Canada last year. Over 1,24,000 Indians studying in Canada are our second-largest group of foreign students. No surprise that tourism is also on the rise, with more than 2,10,000 Indians visiting Canada last year. There are daily non-stop flights. Still, our representatives have not been able to bring any positive outcome,” says political scientist Surinder Shukla, an authority on Indo-Canadian relations.

Rise of the fringe

Some compare the rise of the NDP to that of the Aam Aadmi Party in India. “There are many parallels. Both are close to fringe elements and support Khalistan. Look how Kejriwal had to pay for his association with fringe elements in India and Canada. He did manage to get huge funding from NRIs in North America, but the grassroots voter is smart and wants no fiddling with peace,” says Toronto-based Gulshan Bhasin while rooting for Conservatives.  

“ The Progressive Conservatives headed by Doug Ford, fared extremely well, winning 76 of the total 124 seats. What makes us worry is rise in violence. Canada is not used to this. The recent bomb attack at an Indian restaurant has set the alarm bells ringing and brought the focus on refugees and fringe elements in the country. Some caveats have to be there,” Bhasin adds. 

What ruffles New Delhi at the moment is a spate in activities of the separatist organisations supporting Khalistan movement in Canada. Gurdwaras in North America have banned the entry of government officials. Recently in one such event, radical leaders from other organisations tried to build a narrative around the referendum, striking a raw nerve amidst slogans of “Khalistan Jindabad” while eulogising Sikh extremist Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale, who once headed radical outfit Damdami Taksal, and was a notable supporter of the Anandpur Resolution.

“India would like to see a government that’s hard on radicals. Trudeau ruined his career because of his deep understanding with them. The time has come to look forward and talk about progressive agendas as next generations here hardly find themselves in sync with the old issues,” says Calgary-based Vikram Parmar who immigrated in 1990 and now owns warehouses here.