The battle for 2019

THE midnight launch of the new tax system was an accurate reflection of the index of opposition unity as it readies itself to take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the next election. At least a quarter of the Lok Sabha consisting mainly of the Congress, the Left and some regional parties stayed away. All of them can potentially be in an alliance to take on the BJP. A few of those which attended the GST launch ceremony can be expected to join the ranks of the gathbandhan-in-the-making. Many unlikely allies have come together because this is the only available option because of the threat to their existence. Together, the BSP and the SP in UP, the DMK and the Congress in Tamil Nadu, Mamata’s TMC, the Left and the Congress in West Bengal form formidable vote banks. 

In terms of realpolitik the deciding contest to chip away at the BJP’s majority will take place in UP and Bihar. UP is more crucial as it has bestowed the BJP one-fourth of its total Lok Sabha seats and where it looks more vulnerable if an alliance takes shape. But in Bihar, the buoyancy of 2015 has been replaced by strains in the original Mahagathbandhan. The picture is unclear in the South where the BJP is chipping away at the existing power equations. Nor has any viable formation coalesced to challenge it in the West. 

The pull of the same lot of opposition leaders who decisively lost the 2014 polls may not be enough to excite the imagination of the young millions who were fired by Narendra Modi’s shrewdly carved alternative vision of a go-getting India. As PM he has kept that impression alive with demonetisation, ban on cattle slaughter, surgical strikes and cultivated photo ops abroad and here. The present opposition set gives the impression of being jaded and unwilling to give space to youth. For the Congress, Rahul Gandhi’s utility remains a quandary. The nation does need a breather from the ruling regime’s mood of permanent hostility but any alternative should not just be a vehicle for personal ambitions.