Maldivian elections

THE results of the parliamentary elections in the Maldives are making waves in the Indian Ocean Region. At stake, in particular, are India’s strategic interests amid China’s aggressive outreach to smaller nations. The resounding victory of President Mohamed Muizzu’s People’s National Congress has implications for the Maldives’ international alliances, notably with China. The shift towards China aligns with Muizzu’s anti-India rhetoric and his administration’s endeavours to bolster economic cooperation with Beijing, exemplified by major infrastructure projects awarded to Chinese companies. The decisive win grants Muizzu the political leverage to advance the pro-China agenda that he has been pursuing ever since he was elected President last year.

His tough stance is at variance with his predecessor Ibrahim Mohamed Solih’s leaning towards India. The poll outcome will make it harder for New Delhi to improve its relations with the Maldives. The diverging paths of Male and New Delhi were apparent in January this year, when Muizzu opposed Indian troops’ presence in the Maldives.

India’s response to these developments has been nuanced, balancing diplomatic engagement with strategic caution. While External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has emphasised the enduring significance of historical ties and geographical proximity between the two nations, New Delhi has also taken measures to recalibrate its relationship by safeguarding its interests. The imposition of restrictions on the export of essential commodities to the Maldives is reflective of India’s awareness of the geopolitical dynamics. Spoiling relations with India could prove detrimental to the Maldives’ economic progress as the tiny nation risks overdependence on China. Fostering constructive neighbourly engagement is crucial for sustaining regional stability and security.

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