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Foreign policy gone wrong

AN yearender on the government’s record in foreign policy during 2016 makes a sad story of missed opportunities. The government raised high expectations when it came to power.

Foreign policy gone wrong

Slip-up: Excessive preoccupation with geopolitics has cost us dear.



MK Bhadrakumar

AN yearender on the government’s record in foreign policy during 2016 makes a sad story of missed opportunities. The government raised high expectations when it came to power. But all that spin doctors can claim halfway through the government’s term is that under PM Modi’s leadership India ‘behaves like a big power’ and that its prestige is soaring sky-high. Airy claims create a false sense of euphoria, whereas in actuality, 2016 is ending on a sombre note. The lingering image of India in the world opinion today is of a bumbling government that cannot provide national currency for the day-to-day life of citizens.

Assertiveness in foreign policy is meaningless if it is not respected. Assertiveness per se is futile unless there is total clarity about objectives, and is backed by comprehensive national power. The Modi government’s objectives remain unclear. What does it hope to achieve? Arguably, assertiveness in the conduct of inter-state relations is also becoming meaningless in the multipolar world setting in an era of globalisation where countries big and small are conscious of multiple choices available to them in the pursuit of their national interest, and diligently exercise strategic autonomy.

India historically enjoyed high standing on the world stage and its ‘soft power’ has been the source of particular strength in contemporary forums such as G-20. Where is it that the Modi government hopes to make a difference? Is it in pursuit of regional hegemony? Is it to instil fear and awe among others? Is it to extract unilateral advantages out of them? Of course, in the final analysis, what dividends, if any, an assertive foreign policy could gain for India in the past one year? There are no easy answers here. The assertive foreign policy ends up as grandstanding to project a contrived picture of virility of leadership that might otherwise get exposed as mediocre.

There is no shred of evidence that the government’s assertive foreign policies impressed any of India’s smaller neighbours. Alas, the year is ending with the snub administered by Dhaka a week ago, which cancelled at the last minute the visit by PM Sheikh Hasina to India on the occasion of the 45th anniversary of the liberation of the then East Pakistan, timed to honour our soldiers who were martyred in the 1971 War. Again, despite the ‘surgical strikes’ across the LoC with Pakistan, terrorist attacks on Indian military bases have continued. In retrospect, the government got it all wrong vis-à-vis Pakistan. The policy vacuum is buried under the drift between coercion and episodic engagement.

On the whole, the foreign policy has been characterised by an excessive focusing on India’s relations with the US. But the actual gains of the US-centric foreign policy remain debatable. Clearly, the logistics agreement works to the US’ advantage. The status of ‘major defence partner’ boils down to the US selling more weapons to India (at the asking price, of course). The bottom line is that the government tripped on the delicate global dynamics in contemporary world politics. There has been an inevitable blowback insofar as the perceived closeness to the US affected India’s ties with both Russia and China. In the myopia over ‘assertiveness’, the government turned a blind eye on the US’ containment strategies against Russia and China, which eventually pushed the two big powers into an entente that holds disconcerting implications for India.

Most certainly, 2016 stands out as the defining moment when contradictions began appearing in India’s relations with Russia for the first time, since Nikita Khrushchev visited our country in 1954. The tectonic plates of the time-tested relationship have started shifting. This unwarranted alienation is happening largely due to the neglect of strategic dialogue with Moscow. Perceptions matter in politics and India is conveying the impression of calibrated jettisoning of its foreign-policy moorings. The PM’s decision to skip the NAM Summit in Venezuela alone was laden heavily with symbolism. India is free to redefine its concept of non-alignment and must indeed adapt to changing circumstances, but why should the PM signal such disdainful disinterest in a historical process that underscored the country’s independent foreign policies? NAM is a unique platform bringing together 120 countries. India’s retreat works to Pakistan’s advantage. Isn’t Pakistan doing rather well with constructive engagement of China, US and Russia alike?

We are witnessing a period of regression in Sino-Indian normalisation. The hard-won predictability in India-China relations during the UPA era is in jeopardy. India’s gravitation toward the US’ rebalance strategy in Asia, its unwarranted insertion into South China Sea issues and its obsessive interest to form ‘strategic triangles’ with countries based on antipathies toward rising China — these are illogical moves. China has hardened its stance on issues of vital interest to India. China is our biggest neighbour — unlike America or Japan — and our Asia-Pacific policies should have factored this compelling reality.

Indeed, an excessive preoccupation with geopolitics costs India dearly. How does it matter if the region is called ‘Indo-Pacific’ rather than ‘Asia-Pacific’ for yet another generation? What if the benign outlook of ‘Look East’ had continued? The foreign policy priority at the present juncture of India’s development should have been to create a conducive external environment so that we remain focussed on economic diplomacy to leverage the Indian market when the economy is showing appreciable growth rate, with a view to create jobs for youth in really big numbers. Ironically, this was what the PM himself had promised in 2014.

As 2016 draws to a close, India is ill-equipped to adjust to the emergent realities of a possible US retrenchment in Asia. The ‘pivot to Asia’ is unravelling and Donald Trump’s approach is to robustly negotiate one-on-one with China the terms of future engagement. A new type of relations between the two great powers will emerge. China is an indispensable partner for America’s prosperity and global influence. Suffice it to say, India is entering unchartered waters. The ‘assertive’ regional policies were predicated on a strategic paradigm that turns out to be delusional.

The writer is a former ambassador

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