New Delhi, July 12
Reeling under a bad monsoon spell this year, the northwest India may see some respite around July 20. Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) long-range forecasting head D Sivanand Pai today confirmed that the parched regions of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh and western Uttar Pradesh can expect a “wet spell for four to five days” around July 20.

“The cumulative July rainfall is expected to be better than June,” the Pune-based scientist said, adding that the countrywide rains would soon improve. “There is a low pressure area and possibility of the western disturbance adding to the progress of monsoon. However, the monsoon has to be stable to progress further, he added.

The situation as it stands today is not very positive. Weak rainfall in India since the start of the season last month has raised concerns of a first drought in five years, though weather experts are hopeful of its revival next week.

Whatever rain that India is receiving right now is largely concentrated in the peninsular region, eastern and western parts of the country. Though the situation has improved over Maharashtra and some parts of Madhya Pradesh, most of Gujarat and Rajasthan are yet to receive any rain.

Pai acknowledged the fact that even though the monsoon has revived over some parts of India, including Odisha and Chhattisgarh, it was not as strong as it should have been.

In fact as per the IMD weekly report, eastern and southeast peninsular India were the only regions that received normal rainfall during the week. Of 36 meteorological subdivisions, six have received excess rainfall, another six normal, seven deficient and 17 scanty. “Many places are having deficient monsoon,” he said.

Even though the government is still wary of using the word drought when it comes to classifying the current season, all existing parameters are pointing towards northwest and central India ending with a severe rainfall deficit this season.

The government has confirmed that the delay in onset of monsoon and its slow progress has caused delay in sowing of paddy, pulses, oilseeds and cotton. “However, the sowing window is available till early August and sowing coverage is expected to improve with further progress of monsoon,” Agriculture Minister Radha Mohan Singh told the Parliament this week.

The Met office has predicted heat wave to severe heat wave conditions over Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and north Madhya Pradesh in the next three days. Some mild relief can be expected early next week as the IMD’s website is indicating possibility of some rainfall activity over the northwest around July 14-15.

Minimum temperatures are above normal by 2¬5°C at many places, including Rajasthan, Haryana and Delhi, north MP, UP, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh. As per IMD, no significant change in maximum temperatures over northwest India is expected in the next two to three days.