New Delhi, July 9
With the shadow of the El Nino looming over the Indian monsoon, there are legitimate concerns about its likely impact on agriculture production and consequently the prices of food products.

This is what the government’s Economic Survey for 2013-14 had to say. It is perhaps the first direct admission that agriculture production and food prices are being affected by the below-normal rains.

“In the monsoons for 2014-15, there are concerns about the likely occurrence of the El Nino, when surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean continuously rise above average for several months adversely affecting weather in many regions. This is likely to have an impact on India’s agriculture and consequently on food prices,” the survey said.

Though it also dispelled any cause for alarm as India was “well placed on food grain availability with record domestic production and huge stocks in central pool,” it underlined the need for “holistic reform of farm-to-fork supply chain to solve persistent food inflation”.

It also suggested the use of Constitutional powers to break monopoly of wholesale markets, giving farmers freedom to sell their produce anywhere.

The over-exploitation of water resources is leading to alarming reduction in water table in Punjab, Haryana and western UP which is not sustainable in the long run.

The Met Department has projected below normal monsoon at 93% of the long period average. Till June, rainfall is deficient by 43%. As a result, sowing of kharif crops is also lower by 43 per cent till July 4. As the government blames hoarders for the recent spurt in food prices, the economic report card said high cost of intermediation had a cascading effect on prices.