New Delhi, June 29
While monsoon has already missed its date with northwest India this season, the overall rain deficiency for June has crossed 43 per cent, a private forecast agency today said. 

Skymet termed it “the 12th instance in the past 113 years when rain shortfall was over 30 per cent” in the first month.

This is not something the NDA government, which is struggling to control inflation and price rise, would have wanted soon after coming to power.

But some respite seems to be around the corner at least in some parts of the country, with widespread discrepancy being seen in the distribution of rainfall this year. While East and North-East are reeling under excess rainfall — 14 per cent more than normal so far — the rest of the country is in deep red with central and northwest India facing the brunt. In comparison, the sourthern parts of the country seem to be doing much better.

Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, rainfall has been normal in just seven. It has been deficient in majority 20 subdivisions and scanty in nine. This means 80 per cent of the country has received much less rainfall than what they normally do during the month in the June-September season.

The northern limit of monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Veraval, Surat, Nasik, Wasim, Damoh and Sultanpur.

Good news is some respite can be expected in the first week of July. There is a fresh surge in the Arabian Sea that could bring monsoon showers along the western coastline by July 1.

A fresh western disturbance would affect northwest India in the beginning of July and the National Capital and northwest plains may get a good spell around July 5.

The northwest normally receives the seasonal rains around June 29- 30.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) says the mild interaction of monsoon and western disturbance would help in advancement of monsoon in northern UP, Himachal Pradesh and the Jammu division during the next three to four days.

It is to be seen whether the intensity of rain in July will make up for the deficiency in the crucial summer sowing season. While some parts of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh will “receive fairly widespread rains” around July 3, Punjab, Haryana Chandigarh and Delhi will have to make do with “scattered rain”.

As on date, northwest India comprising Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Chandigarh, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan is facing 53 per cent deficit. Punjab is facing 62 per cent shortfall; Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh 40 per cent; and western UP 71 per cent deficit.

Though these areas boast of a good irrigation system that may help farmers tide over the shortfall, farmers in the rest of the country have no such comfort.

Agriculture in more than three-fourths of the country continues to depend upon monsoon every year.

Central India, which has some of the worst irrigated regions — including Saurashtra, Kutch, Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharshtra and Vidarbha — is deficient by 58 per cent.