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himachal votes 2012 countdown
Pundits predict close finish in Himachal
Rakesh Lohumi/TNS

Shimla, December 17
With pollsters predicting a close finish in the Assembly elections, the Third Front Himachal Lok Morcha (HLM) and Independents are hoping for a repeat of 1998 and 1982 results when the people’s verdict threw up a hung House.

With the highest ever number of candidates (459) in the fray for 68 seats, the division of votes is likely to make the contest in most seats really tough.

Apart from the BJP and the Congress, the HLM (an alliance of breakaway BJP group, the Himachal Lokhit Party, the CPM and the CPI), the BSP and other parties have also fielded a large number of candidates. In this situation, Independents, particularly rebels of the two mainstream parties, fancy their chances. The latest polling data reveals 31,401 postal ballots, including 2,875 issued to Service voters, have been received by the authorities.

With this, the polling percentage has reached a record 74.65%, surpassing the previous high of 74.51% achieved in 2003 polls. It is not unusual, as large number of candidates lead to greater mobilisation of the electorate, say pundits.

The state has the highest literacy rate in the country and its people are also politically aware. They have in the past mostly given a clear verdict. However, the situation this time is much like 1998 when the Himachal Vikas Congress, a breakaway Congress faction led by veteran leader Sukh Ram, managed to secure 5 seats to upset the arithmetic of the main contenders. As a result, the Congress could not form the government despite being the single largest party with 31 seats, while the BJP with 29 seats forged an alliance with the HVC and Ramesh Dhwala, a BJP rebel who won as an Independent, to oust the Congress from office.

In 1982, the scenario was somewhat similar, except that there were six Independents and the Janata Party had won two seats. It was the Congress which formed the government with the help of Independents and a BJP defector.

Currently, the BJP and the Congress are in touch with the Independents. Potential winners like Rajender Rana (Sujanpur), Rakesh Pathania (Nurpur), Manohar Dhiman (Indora), Pawan Kajal (Kangra) and Ravi Dhiman (Jaisinghpur) are being keenly watched. Similarly, the Congress has its eye on its rebels like Dharmvir Dhami (Manali), Kirnesh Jung (Paonta Sahib), Parminder Pammi (Doon), Vijay Jyoti (Kasumpti), AC Pal (Arki) and Yog Raj (Dehra).

The support of the HLM, say pollsters, could prove crucial if the mainstream parties fail to reach the halfway mark with the support of Independents. Whether the people of the state will give a clean verdict or the state will witness a hung House would be clear on December 20. 

Keen contest

* With the highest ever number of candidates (459), including 106 Independents, in the fray, the division of votes is likely to make the contest in most seats really tough

* The Third Front Himachal Lok Morcha (an alliance of breakaway BJP group, HLP, CPM and CPI) and Independents are hoping for a repeat of 1998 and 1982 results that threw up a hung House

* Not taking any chances, both BJP and Congress leaders are in touch with the Independents.