M A I N   N E W S

IMD set to lower hopes for a normal monsoon
As rainfall remains deficient, IMD feels the heat of criticism
Vibha Sharma/TNS

New Delhi, July 25
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the nation’s weather forecaster, is all set to downgrade its monsoon prediction for the year.

As the country stares at the possibility of a drought, the question now is whether the IMD goofed up again or just played safe at the behest of the government to keep market forces in check and due to political compulsions.

Facing brickbats for yet another wrong forecast, IMD Director SC Bhan said, “The basic problem is of science. The Indian monsoon is a very complicated system. There are uncertainties attached to any prediction which increase with the expansion of the forecast validity period. But still, the forecast provided by the IMD is the best in the world.”

When on April 26, the government issued its first forecast of “normal” monsoon for the year, the specific poser was — “What is your message to farmers?” The reason: Fears voiced by international agencies of the dreaded “monsoon opponent” El Nino making an appearance for its 2012 sojourn.

“There is no need for worry,” Earth Sciences Secretary Shailesh Nayak said. Assuring normal rains and production, he did say that a lot depended on the distribution of rainfall. Ministers Vilasrao Deshmukh and Ashwini Kumar also assured that “production, including that of rice, pulses and coarse seeds, will get a boost”.

Politics, economics to blame? The effect of monsoon on India’s economy is well documented. In a country where the majority lives in rural areas and is connected with agriculture, the political implications of the monsoon are also well-recognised Officials said the effect of the monsoon over commodity prices is such that a mere hint of a bad phase can lead to price rise and hoarding - a situation that the government wants to avoid in all circumstances The day Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said that the area under pulses would decrease, prices shot up. Even though there is no problem in the acreage under sugarcane, the mill gate prices of sugar have increased and their effect will start becoming visible in the near future

The IMD's second stage forecast on June 22 predicted rainfall to be normal - 96 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) with model error of plus/minus 4 per cent.

Now, three months after the first prediction, the IMD is set for another revision - a downgrade to 92 per cent of the LPA.

The area under pulses and coarse seeds is down, especially in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan, a fact now admitted by the PMO.

“There has been reduction of around 8 million hectares in the crop area sown compared to last year. While the reduction in area sown in case of rice could be covered over time, area reduction in coarse cereals is likely to persist,” it recently said.

Paddy production will not affected because of good irrigation facilities available in key producing areas like Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh.

Officials admit that reservoir situation is critical - a condition that affects rabi crops that largely depend on irrigation.

Even at this stage, the word “drought” is being carefully avoided. All that government is saying is that there are extensive plans to deal with the “deficiency in rainfall in some parts of the country” and that it is in full readiness to address any situation that may arise due to any “rainfall anomalies”.