New Delhi, May 12
Tomorrow’s results of the long-drawn electoral battle in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry are being keenly awaited by the Congress, which is banking on a victory in a couple of states to help boost the sagging morale of its cadres and redeem the UPA government’s credibility that has been badly hit by a series of scams over the past year.

Although Congress leaders are not saying so officially, privately they all admit that these election results have national implications for the party and the UPA government. Besides impacting the party’s image, the verdict could also alter relations between the Congress and its allies like the DMK and the Trinamool Congress.

While firebrand Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee looks all set to end the uninterrupted three-decade-old rule of the Left Front in West Bengal, a hapless Congress is looking to unseat the Communists in Kerala and retain Assam for the third consecutive time. Most post-poll surveys have indicated that Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK is ahead in Tamil Nadu.

Congress insiders maintain their party has high stakes in these elections and a defeat in Kerala or Assam will not only demoralise party workers further, but will also put the UPA government in a tight spot which will then have to contend with more assertive alliance partners and an aggressive Opposition.

“It is imperative for us to win Kerala, even if it is by a slender margin, and retain Assam,” remarked a senior Congress leader, adding that the party is in a desperate need of some good news. The Congress is nervous as some reports suggest that Kerala Chief Minister VS Achuthanandan’s personal popularity could power the Left to a second consecutive win.

In West Bengal, the Congress is a junior partner of the Trinamool Congress, which is predicted to win by a massive margin, enabling its chief Mamata Banerjee to form the next government without the support of its ally. The Trinamool victory is unlikely to bring much cheer to the Congress as it won’t get any political benefit from that. On the other hand, the UPA government will be more dependent on Mamata Banerjee for its survival and it is well-known that the TMC chief is a tough partner who is capable of driving a hard bargain.

Similarly, in the unlikely scenario that the DMK wins again in Tamil Nadu, it will be seen as a victory for Chief Minister M Karunanidhi’s development agenda while the Congress will play second fiddle to its dominant partner. In such a scenario, the DMK is bound to mount present on the UPA government with a lengthy wish-list that will include a go-slow on the CBI investigations involving Karunandihi’s daughter Kanimozhi.

Like Mamata Banerjee, Karunanidhi is also not an easy ally to deal with. If the DMK has to sit in the Opposition, the Congress will have the upper hand as its Southern ally will need all possible help from the Centre to fend off a vindictive Jayalalithaa.