M A I N   N E W S

In Bengal, chemistry works for Mamata
Uttam Sengupta/TNS

Kolkata, May 1
While the English alphabet starts with ‘A’ for apple, the corresponding letter in the Bengali alphabet, for some curious reason, has for ages been taught as ‘A’ for ‘ajgar’ or the python. No wonder, a wall cartoon in Kolkata depicts Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee clambering up a tree after being chased by a slithering python. There are no prizes for guessing what the python stands for.

Yet another cartoon is more direct. It shows the CM lying on a railway track, in front of an approaching train. It is of course the Mamata Express. The confidence, bordering on cockiness, in the Mamata camp is unmistakable. They seem to know the writing on the wall, long before the votes are counted on May 13, and with good reason.

Ten years ago, in 2001, Mamata Banerjee had raised the slogan, “Now or Never”. Jyoti Basu had stepped down after 23 years as Chief Minister. His anointed successor, Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, was still finding his feet. The time did appear opportune for the lady to make a decisive dash for the red-brick Writers’ Building, the secretariat. At that time, too, she had an alliance with the Congress in a bid to prevent splitting anti-Left votes in the state.

But she lost that election and the one five years later in 2006. This year, however, her decade-old slogan has acquired a fresh resonance. If she cannot win this time, it is doubtful if she would ever be able to wrest power in the state. And that is because both ‘chemistry and arithmetic’ seem to favour her this time.

She has not lost an election in the state since 2007. Panchayat elections, the local bodies’ poll and the General Election of 2009, followed by the election to the Kolkata Municipal Corporation, went in her favour. Indeed, in the General Election of 2009, the Left Front managed to win just 15 of the 42 constituencies. If that trend persists in the Assembly elections in 2011, the Left Front is unlikely to win more than 100 out of the 294 seats in the Assembly.

Significantly, however, the Left has since then won several students’ union elections, a barometer in the politically sensitive state.

The Left Front also utilised the reverses for course-correction, dumping a large number of ministers and old-timers, fielding fresh and young faces in the Assembly election. It also bent over backwards to win back the support of the ‘poor’ in the months preceding the poll. And yet, the efforts appear too little and to have come a little too late in the day.

That is because the Trinamool Congress, the party Banerjee floated after walking out of the Congress barely 13 years ago, is today more organised than ever. It is clearly flush with funds, thanks in no small measure to her own cabinet berth and her colleagues in the Central ministry.

More importantly, it has attracted a large number of political workers and leaders from both the Congress and the CPM. Two former Pradesh Congress Committee presidents, Somen Mitra and Subrata Mukherjee, besides veteran Congress leaders like Sougata Roy have accepted her leadership and have helped make the party organisation stronger.

Another factor in her favour is the large-scale exodus from the ranks of the Left Front to her side during the last few years.

Above all, the mainstream media in the state have already anointed her the next Chief Minister. The Assembly election in 2011 in the state is being contested for the first time under the glare of so many regional television channels. The bigger ones among them did not exist in 2006. With the Left Front’s well-known contempt for the ‘capitalist media’, it is not surprising to find the media hitting back at them with a vengeance. If Mamata wins, the media can claim a part of the credit.