M A I N   N E W S

Odds weigh against early poll in Punjab
Sarbjit Dhaliwal
Tribune News Service

Arguments in favour To contain dissidence and defection To give Cong and Manpreet Badal as little time as possible Election, ideally, just after the harvest so that farmers’ grievances do not crystallise Arguments against Since 1992 elections have always been held on schedule There is no compulsion for the SAD-BJP coalition to give up six months of the term Weather conditions not conducive before the harvest. Festival season begins after the harvest The state government hopes to showcase development projects by early next year.

Jalandhar, February 20
The current flurry of political rallies in Punjab and the high decibel level of leaders, contrary to speculation, may not signal an early Assembly election in the state. Due to be held before February, 2012, Congress leaders have been claiming that the SAD-BJP coalition government might prefer to prepone the election to October or November this year.

The last time the Assembly poll was held in the state on February 13, 2007 and results were declared on February 27,2007.

Observers point out that election for the all-powerful Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee ( SGPC), scheduled to be held in May this year, is going to be the litmus test for the SAD-led government in the state. The results of this election would provide early indications of which way the political wind is blowing and whether the Congress and Manpreet Badal, the lone ranger, are able to make any dent in the Akali support base or not.

If only the Akalis do well in the SGPC poll will it make sense for SAD to call for an early Assembly election. SAD would then like to take advantage of the favourable conditions and leave the rivals with little or no time to regroup.

While the state cabinet can adopt a resolution recommending the dissolution of the Assembly and an early Assembly election, the discretion would lie with the Election Commission and, to a lesser extent, with the Union Government. It is also possible that in that eventuality, the latter might opt for a spell of President’s Rule in the state, thus negating any political advantage the SAD-BJP coalition may hope to gain, points out Constitutional expert Pritam Singh Kumedan.

Since 1992, he adds, elections have never been held before the completion of the five-year term of the respective governments.

An important member of the Congress think-tank and an MLA, Jeet Mohinder Singh Sidhu, however, maintains, “We know that the SAD leadership is nervous and shaky. Manpreet Badal’s plans to float his own political party and the slow but steady defections from SAD ranks leave them with few options but to take a chance with an early election”.