New Delhi, September 14
Monsoon rains are likely to start withdrawing from the northwest around September 28, the India Meteorological Department today said.
While seasonal rains leaving the region nearly a month later than normal and close to the time when Commonwealth Games begin on October 3, the northwest will experience another spell of rains between September 18 and 21.
IMD chief Ajit Tyagi, who unveiled elaborate plans for providing forecast during the Games, including venue-specific three-hourly “nowcasts”, said based on data of 110 years the probability of rains during the 12-day sports mega event was just around 15 to 20 per cent. “Based on historical data, I am not ruling out probability of rains during October, but there is no need for panic,” he said.
Meanwhile, another spell of rains is expected in the northwest between September 18 and 21, further raising risk of floods and damage to crops in these parts, already reeling under the impact of heavy showers. Late withdrawal of the monsoon has already delayed cotton harvest.
The monsoon usually starts retreating from parts of western most part of northwest India around September 1. “As of now, we are expecting withdrawal should start around September 28 or 29,” Tyagi said.
Monsoon, which last year delivered the weakest rainfall in 37 years, began on shaky grounds this year but gathered momentum in July, causing surplus rainfall in subsequent months. Total monsoon rain since June 1 is already two per cent above normal and more is expected in September, a month when rainfall is already 22 per cent higher than average this year.
