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The agenda for action
THE CONGRESS
THE COALITION |
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The agenda for action Looking back on its first anniversary, UPA-II can draw some satisfaction from the fact that it has survived in a turbulent political environment and has added a few feathers to its cap. This is not to say that expectations have not been belied and everything is hunky dory for the Manmohan Singh government. During UPA-1, the intelligentsia in particular painted the Left as the ultimate villain that stood in the way of economic reforms. Now, with the Left out of the way, there are nagging questions being asked as to why the stagnation in reforms continues. The Manmohan Singh government's achilles heel is, however, food inflation which is running uncomfortably high and is eroding the government's support base. Consequently, any talk of a blueprint for the future cannot ignore the imperative to control prices, especially food prices, when typically, food articles account for over 40 per cent of an average household's monthly budget. With food prices running at record levels, the family budgets have taken a sound beating. Be it arhar dal, sugar, potatoes, onions, and to a lesser extent rice and wheat, the prices are spiralling out of control. In 2008, it was estimated that India loses Rs 58,000 crore worth of agricultural food items due to lack of post-harvesting infrastructure such as cold chains, transportation, and storage facilities. If the Government had ensured proper storage facility, food inventory would have been plentiful, leading to prices remaining under control. The situation continues to be bad on this front. The Indian farmers are largely dependent on the four-month monsoon season during which 80 per cent of the year's total rainfall takes place. The reason is that 60 per cent of the country's total cropped area is not irrigated. The dependence on the vagaries of the weather needs to be reduced drastically. The per hectare agricultural yield in India is half that of China. This points to inefficiency and the failure to help the farmers adopt the latest technology in order to increase the crop output. This cannot but be an area of priority. With the Indian economy's growth rate at an impressive 8-9 per cent and the economic slowdown hitting the economy much less severely than in most countries, there is something to gloat about. Industrial production and exports are both on the upswing, the latter after a long period of deceleration. With the worldwide slowdown, the job market had been severely hit but there are clear signs that it is picking up. As we move on however, much more needs to be done to shake off the inertia that has plagued economic reforms for the last several years. The need for more liberal labour exit policies is particularly great because there is an appallingly lax work culture in place and lack of accountability because of which productivity in various sectors is far below the potential. Another major challenge for the country and for the UPA in the remainder of its term is corruption and the related scourge of blackmarketing and hoarding. The 'parallel' economy is indeed on a mind-boggling scale. Happily, there is tangible headway in education reforms, the Right to Information Act has been a big boon in terms of transparency in governance, there is forward movement on gender justice, the new generation of panchayat reforms are making an impact and there is a modern and user-friendly direct taxes regime on the anvil. It would be foolhardy to deny, however, that daunting challenges lie ahead for the Manmohan Singh government, not the least of which are internal security and the tackling of terrorism. Considering that Maoists are active in 220 districts across 20 states representing 40 per cent of the country's geographical area, their insurgency brooks no complacency. It is time the Centre and governments in affected states establish the fear of law through joint action to stamp out Maoism which is drawing increasing support from across the border in Nepal, Myanmar and China. Besides, the UPA government needs to dispel notions that it is soft on terror. It is imperative that the Manmohan Singh government delivers on justice. With nearly three crore cases pending in various courts in the country, the government needs to devise ways to clear the huge backlog and to ensure speedier justice to litigants. Corruption in the judiciary is also a phenomenon that needs attention on priority. On foreign policy, there have been some gains but strategically this country has much more to do to meet the Chinese challenge and to move towards a more meaningful relationship with its neighbours. All in all, the undercurrents are positive but there are lessons to be learnt from UPA's experience in the six years that it has been in office in two spells. The challenges of inflation, of internal and external security, of raising the levels of manpower productivity and of speedier justice need to be addressed more strongly and effectively. The next four years will be a testing time for
UPA-II. |
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THE CONGRESS As UPA-II completes one year in office, there is a growing realisation in the Congress that its initial confidence was misplaced. The recently concluded budget session of Parliament clearly demonstrated that the ruling combine remains as vulnerable as ever. An enthusiastic Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s decision to move ahead with the contentious Women’s Reservation Bill alienated RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav, SP president Mulayum Singh Yadav and BSP head Mayawati, whose parties account for 46 members in the Lok Sabha, providing the much-needed cover to the government without which, it just about hovers around the halfway mark of 272 in the 545-member Lok Sabha. “ It was poor political management..…if you don’t have 272 , you cannot govern like you have 272. Obviously the party did not have a correct perception of the situation ,” remarked an AICC functionary. The government had to move quickly to woo back these three parties when they showed signs of supporting the Opposition-sponsored cut motions on the demands for grants in the Lok Sabha. The Yadav duo were assured that the women’s reservation Bill would not be tabled in the Lok Sabha while their demand for a caste-based census was conceded. Mayawati’s support was won after the Centre indicated its intent to go slow on the disproportionate assets case pending against her. “Although the Congress has more numbers this time, UPA-I was qualitatively more stable as we had to deal with only the 60-member bloc of Left parties. Each Parliament session henceforth will be an uphill task ,” remarked a senior UPA minister. The government may have succeeded in buying peace with its three key outside supporters but it still gives the impression of being on shaky grounds. Its key partner, Railways Minister and Trinamul Congress chief Mamata Banerji is proving to be quite a handful. FocusSed on next year’s West Bengal assembly elections, she barely attends Cabinet meetings and comes up with absurd demands like the imposition of Central rule in West Bengal or advancing assembly polls in the state. More recently, she embarrassed the Congress when she joined hands with the Yadav duo in opposing the women’s quota Bill after giving her consent to it in the Cabinet. Although she has not snapped ties with the Congress, the government is perennially on tenterhooks as far as Mamata is concerned. Not just its allies, but the Congress party’s own ministers have been equally guilty of serious transgressions. Already under fire for speaking out of turn, Shashi Tharoor was forced to resign as minister of state for external affairs following disclosures about his questionable involvement in the Indian Premium League (IPL) and the Rs.80 crore sweat equity paid to his friend by the Kochi franchisees. The outspoken and irreverent environment minister Jairam Ramesh embarrassed the government when he criticised his own government’s China policy on a visit to Beijing. Although he has survived, Ramesh was ticked off by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for this serious breach of protocol. With the Congress no longer dependent on the Left parties, it was assumed that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh would be able to push ahead with the stalled economic reforms agenda. But the global meltdown, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee’s cautious approach and the UPA’s minority status in the Rajya Sabha essentially means that the banking, insurance and pension Bills, which were blocked by the Marxists last time, are unlikely to be pursued this time either. The track record of UPA-II on governance has not been particularly scintillating. “There has been no defining USP of this government,” a Congress leader commented, adding that the government has been hamstrung from pursuing its social agenda with the same vigour as it did during UPA-I because of the economic downturn. While the UPA is striving hard to get its act together, the Congress is looking at a future where it will no longer weighed down by troublesome partners. Having got an opportunity head a government at the Centre for the second consecutive term, the Congress wants to use this to hardsell itself as a party which can deliver on governance to expand its base in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Tamil Nadu where it has been eclipsed by regional players and which are crucial for it to rule Delhi alone. Special recruitment drives are being conducted in these states as part of the ongoing organisational elections while party structures are being strengthened. Rahul Gandhi, the Nehru-Gandhi scion and AICC general secretary, has got down to the task of building the party in these states by nurturing young talent which, in time, can assume a larger leadership role. Ever since he was given charge of the Indian Youth Congress and the National Student’s Union of India (NSUI), Rahul Gandhi has been rebuilding these organisations literally from scratch. As part of his one-point agenda to transform these moribund organizations, he has been travelling extensively to enlist the support of young people and set in motion a process of organisational elections to usher in greater democracy and transparency. The process began in Punjab but has moved to the other states and is expected to be wrapped by this year-end. Bihar, which will go for Assembly polls later this year, will be the party’s first big challenge. Rahul Gandhi is also focussed on reviving the Congress in the Hindi heartland state of Uttar Pradesh, which has 81 Lok Sabha seats and crucial if the Congress is to return to power at the Centre without the help of mercurial allies.
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THE COALITION This led to a tussle between both parties for ministerial berths. The Congress had to concede as many berths to the NCP as was agreed earlier. In the last Lok Sabha elections, the Congress could touch the magic figure of 200 in a House of 544. Though it could reduce its dependence on outside support, the expectations from the party have gone up. Today the Congress has all but shaken off some of its allies like Lalu Prasad, Mulayam Singh and Shibu Soren, whom sections within the Congress considered a bit of an embarrassment. A major contributory factor to this new sense of confidence was the Congress’ phenomenal victory in Uttar Pradesh led by Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi, when they took the Congress tally to 21 seats in UP, equalling its record of 1989. In neighbouring Bihar, the Congress won two seats without the support of Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal. However, the proof of the pudding lies in eating. Bihar will go to polls by the year-end. While the Lok Sabha elections did show a clear tilt of Muslims and upper castes towards the Congress here, it still does not have an organisation worth the name to translate this into seats. Last time it only dented the votes of Lalu Prasad and Ram Bilas Paswan. This, in turn, helped the BJP-Janata Dal (United) deal a crushing defeat to the RJD and the LJP. This time there is an effort to put the organisation back in shape. But the kind of infighting being witnessed between Bihar PCC chief Anil Sharma and Central Observer Jagdish Tytler does not bode well for the party. It may not inspire confidence among the voters. Like the Muslim exasperation with Lalu and Paswan, the militant upper caste Bhumihars, who stood solidly behind Nitish Kumar are quite disenchanted with Nitish Kumar for trying to appease the MBCs and Mahadalits. This could help the Congress mop up greater support. But that requires clarity about its priorities. After Bihar, it will be Tamil Nadu’s turn early next year. The Congress has been under pressure from its state leaders to assert itself and seek greater pound of flesh from an ageing and ailing DMK Supremo M Karunanidhi.The ruling DMK is beset by infighting within his large extended family. A lot may depend on the Congress sensing the mood of the electorate and choosing the right ally between the DMK and the AIADMK, and dumping the losing side. For decades, the Congress has been changing partners in Tamil Nadu, backing the winning horse each time. It remains to be seen whether the Congress will continue with the DMK and carry on its winning spree or change its partners. A lot will depend on its ability to gauge the mood of the electorate. The West Bengal elections come next. All indicators point to a despairing and demoralised Left Front making a last-ditch attempt to dig in its heels. The present political situation in the state is a godsend for the Congress after nearly half a century. However, it has to contend with a volatile and unpredictable Mamata Banerjee who enjoys tremendous popular support among the people, exasperated with decades of CPM rule. During the last one year, Mamata has shown no promise of becoming an able administrator. Sooner or later, the Bengali bhadralok are bound to compare her waywardness with the firm rule of Jyoti Basu. That may not bode well for the Congress. The semi-finals will be played in Uttar Pradesh in 2012, two years before the next general election. The Congress has shown promise last year. It has become the number three party, pushing the BJP to the fourth position. Will the Congress manage to beat Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party this time to become the runner-up in the next round or even defeat Mayawati’s ruling BSP and rule Uttar Pradesh once again? It will have to inspire confidence among the people. It has to convince them that it is the real party of governance. In fine, the coming days will be a big challenge for the Congress. It will be an arduous task for the party to win UP, Bihar and West Bengal.
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Clearly, a major trump card for it has been the image of the Prime Minister. The Opposition indeed has no one who is even remotely a match for Dr Manmohan Singh's reputation for integrity and efficiency.
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Nonetheless, the Congress with 206 MPs is still dependent on the support of the NCP, the DMK and, more importantly, the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal not only for its survival at the Centre but also for establishing itself as the real alternative in many states.
In the first six months of UPA II, the Prime Minister and the ruling Congress demonstrated clear signs of self-assurance because of its greater strength in the Lok Sabha, bordering on what other parties perceived as arrogance.
This has given a new resolve to the Congress. Its primary focus now is on returning to the Lok Sabha entirely on its own strength. Simultaneously, the Left citadel of West Bengal crumbled with the CPM having touched an all-time low of just nine seats. The future looks bright for the Congress in UP, Bihar and West Bengal.