M A I N   N E W S

Monsoon likely to hit Kerala on May 30
Vibha Sharma
Tribune News Service

New Delhi, May 14
Southwest monsoon - the most awaited weather phenomenon that is absolutely critical for the agriculture-based economy of the country - is expected to reach Kerala on May 30, two days before its normal onset date of June 1 in the coastal state. At a media workshop organised by the IMD, Earth Sciences Minister Prithviraj Chavan today said the monsoon was likely to arrive over Kerala on May 30.

The seasonal rains are expected to arrive over Andaman Sea by May 20. The normal date of advance of monsoon over Andaman Sea is May 20 and IMD officials expect monsoon flow to start appearing over Andaman Sea by next week and cover it close to its normal date. However, they also caution of absence of any one to one association between date of monsoon advance over Andaman Sea and of monsoon onset over Kerala.

In fact, IMD Director-General Ajit Tyagi says timely onset does not dictate the spread and distribution of rains in the four-month monsoon season.“Last year, monsoon onset was early. Then it fizzled out and country saw a drought-like situation in many states,” he said.

In 2009, the country faced the worst drought in four decades with erratic rainfall hitting kharif sowing and lowering output of key summer crops like rice, pulses and oilseeds.

But the onset of monsoon over the Andaman Sea will set the stage for the summer rain season. Last month, IMD had forecast a normal June-September monsoon this year.

While it may be too early to comment on how the situation will pan out or which months or days will see more precipitation, but the prediction promises hope for soybean, sugar, corn, rice and cotton crops and reducing food inflation. In all, weathermen are keeping fingers crossed for good, healthy and widespread monsoon year.

The onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala signals the arrival of monsoon over the Indian subcontinent and represents beginning of rainy season over the region. From 2005 onwards, IMD has been issuing operational forecasts for the monsoon onset over Kerala using an indigenously developed statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days. IMD says that operational forecasts issued based on this model since then were correct.