M A I N   N E W S

The rain story
This year, expect normal monsoon
Positive ripple effects beyond farm sector; industry, financial markets upbeat
Tribune News Service

New Delhi, April 23
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said it expected normal rainfall in the June-September monsoon season this year, thereby raising hopes of rebound in farm output after last year’s drought as also further improvement in economy following a long recessionary period.

IMD’s long-range forecast is that rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be normal. “Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall is likely to be 98 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5 per cent. The LPA over the country as a whole for the period 1941-1990 is 89 cm,” the weather office said.

If monsoon is normal this year, it will have a positive ripple effect beyond the farm sector. The forecast is a welcome sign for commodities and financial markets as well as the government, battling to rein in inflation. Contributing over 70 per cent to the country’s total rainfall, monsoons are key for farm output and help shape government policy on import and export of commodities.

While it may be too early to comment on how the situation will pan out or which months or days will see more precipitation but the prediction promises hope for soybean, sugar, corn, rice and cotton crops. The forecast will soften food inflation expectations, Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia has been quoted as saying.

Normal monsoon would also mean normal sugarcane crop, which in turn means higher sugar production. Provided the monsoon behaves itself, around 23-24 MT sugar output is expected. In 2009-10, India is likely to produce 18-18.5 MT, well below the domestic demand of 23 MT.

“The IMD forecast of normal monsoon is a very good sign," Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said after the meeting of the Empowered Group of Ministers of Food, headed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee. The IMD will update the above forecast in June 2010. What worked in India’s favour was weakening of El Nino effect. El Nino conditions over equatorial Pacific that remained weak during mid- June to October of 2009 started strengthening from late October and peaked in the third week of December and from late December started weakening.

Latest forecasts from a majority of dynamical and statistical models indicate high probability for the present El Nino conditions to maintain till early monsoon and then weaken to become near neutral during subsequent months, the IMD said. However, a few models indicate development of weak La Niña conditions by July-August 2010.

The Confederation of Indian Farmers Associations also termed the normal monsoon forecast as good news for farmers. “It will be helpful for revival of the overall economy. Agriculture stablisation is key to industrial growth,” general secretary P Chengal Reddy said.