New Delhi, October 3
Drought in traditionally wet months of June, July, August and floods in late September, October- the country appears to be re-writing its seasons and eminent agriculture scientist MS Swaminathan now suggests that to overcome such weather idiosyncrasies in future India should be prepared with new drought and flood codes.
“Drought between June and September and floods in late September and October. In this era of climate change you need to be well prepared with immediate flood relief and food and water storage plans,” Swaminathan said.
Swaminathan’s felt that “when we are prepared for internal security and external defence of the country, we should also be preparing for strengthening its livelihood and water and food security”. In fact, the agriculture expert terms 2009 as a classic case of uncertainty of monsoon behaviour that should serve as a wake-up call to end complacency over the issue among decision makers.
“I believe, henceforth, weather prediction will become increasingly difficult. Our climate management strategy should, therefore, keep in mind the fact that frequency of drought, flood, unseasonal rains and high temperature will increase,” he says.
Floods down South have done extensive damage to the standing kharif crops, life and property and as Swaminathan puts it, “first drought did the damage and now floods are compounding the damage. But the damage is done and now one has to look beyond
floods. As much as 70 per cent of those affected are farmers, who require some urgent help. In future we should be prepared to deal with monsoon failure, acute water and energy shortage by building weather-resilient water, food and livelihood security systems,” he says.
However, dismissing the climate change observations, the India Meteorological Department says October rains in the South Peninsula are a common phenomenon. “October rains occur in south Peninsula once in five to six years. There are many occasions when it has rained extensively in the first week of October,” IMD Director-General Ajit Tyagi said.
Tyagi says a new system is likely to develop in the Bay of Bengal by October 5 or 6 which will lead to some more rains in different parts of Orissa and Andhra Pradash. The saving grace though is that these rains are expected to be moderate.
Dismissing the contention on climate change, Tyagi says in each season there are spells of intense rains. However, he also admits that over a period there has been some increase in instances of intense rains. “There have been instances of intense rains in the past. The only difference is that their number has now slightly increased. It does not mean that every such instance is due to climate change,” he says.
