New Delhi, October 2
Heavy rains in coastal states of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Orissa have claimed several lives, causing massive damage to standing kharif crops and property, and now there is some not-so-good news for farmers in the northwest.

Northwest, comprising Punjab, Haryana, Himachal, J&K, Uttarakhand, west UP and Rajasthan, is likely to experience heavy rains from October 4, says the Meteorological Department. Agriculture experts caution that these rains will not be good for the region, where kharif crops are at a critical stage. While paddy and bajra are in the harvesting stage, cotton is also in the “picking” phase, they say.

Bharti Kisan Union president Balbir Singh Rajewal explains that in Punjab and Haryana, paddy, cotton and potato crops are on the verge of harvesting and any rains now can prove to be very harmful for them.

“Paddy harvesting season has begun and will continue throughout October. If heavy rains occur, the quality of grain will deteriorate and yield will also reduce. Even if rains are not so heavy, the quality of the grain will still be affected. And if rains are also accompanied by winds, the standing crop can suffer even more damage. Farmers have a saying that during this period even a drop of gold is not welcome,” he says.

Rajewal’s advice to farmers is that stop irrigating their fields. “In case of heavy winds, at least paddy stalks will not fall. This is the best that can be done at this point of time,” he says.

The rains during this period are due to a fresh low-pressure area, which is likely to form over west central Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood around October 6. The IMD says due to the likely interaction of an upper air cyclonic circulation and a western disturbance along with high moisture feed from the Bay of Bengal, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over northwest India between October 5 and October 7.

IMD Director SC Bhan says rains can well begin by October 4 and in some areas, mostly in hills of Uttarakhand, Himachal and some places in east Rajasthan, Haryana and West UP in particular, may experience very heavy rains

While the Met Department says this year’s erratic monsoon a normal variability, experts believe there is extreme variability at a sub-regional level that is making predictions more and more difficult and suggest that India must move quickly to increase its predictive capacities and find coping strategies for people across the country.

CSE climate change coordinator Kushal Yadav cautions that the amount of useful rainfall available to farmers may decrease in future. “Instances of extreme rainfall incidences in India are rising and at the same time moderate monsoon rainfall events reducing, by about two incidents per year. For instance, Orissa has experienced 1ºC of average rise in temperature between 1951 and 1990, with more frequent and intense cyclones. On the other coast, Maharashtra now has more rains in May, June and July.”

“Also, events like the flooding of Mumbai in 2007 have increased by 10 per cent per decade in the past 50 years. These trends suggest that even if the total rainfall is not decreasing in the country, what is decreasing is the number of rainy days. It means that the same amount of rain will come in lesser days, leading to floods and extreme events,” Yadav says.