New Delhi, December 7
The BJP and Congress are both waiting with bated breath for the results of the recently-concluded elections to the state assemblies. The counting begins and ends for five states tomorrow.
In the current round, six state assemblies have gone to polls. Of these, the polling process in Jammu and Kashmir will be completed only later this month and therefore its results are not being declared tomorrow. The other, Mizoram, is a north-eastern state which does not really influence the fate of two mainstream parties substantially.
However, the results of Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh are certainly going to have far-reaching impact on the course of national politics, where Congress and BJP are virtually in a direct fight with almost no other significant player claiming to form the government after
the elections. This is being considered as precursor to the general elections and therefore will substantially boost or demoralise either of the two who will be perceived as having lost a “semi-final” bout.
Of these, the BJP is ruling three states, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh and Rajasthan, while Delhi is under the Congress rule for the last ten years.
While publicly the leaders of both Congress and BJP claim that they have done well in all the four states, privately they admit to a sense of unease. Several pre-poll and exit poll surveys have also contributed to this uncertainty.
The three-day Mumbai terrorist attack, beginning November 26 night and carrying on almost till November 29 afternoon, with TV news channel blaring minute-to-minute development, is expected to influence the outcome of the results in a big way. Before that polling had completed only in Chhatisgarh, where somehow the political pundits have predicted a victory for the BJP.
Madhya Pradesh went to polls on November 27, in the midst of the telecast of the Mumbai holocaust. And in Delhi, most of the polling was over before the NSG completed its operation to sanitise the city. Therefore, it is natural for political leaders on either side of the fence to expect its fallout on their respective parties’ fortunes. For instance, a senior Congress leader was apprehensive of the party prospects after the terrorist attack and said, “Had there been no strikes, the party would have definitely ruled the state for the third consecutive time.”
Similarly, a BJP leader also said off the record, “If we still don’t win, we might as well close shop in Delhi.”
In Rajasthan, the elections were held later and Congress leaders are most hopeful of securing a victory there. But surveys have predicted a 50-50 chance for Congress and BJP.
Apart from the terrorist attack, there are also undetermined factors like the presence of UP chief minister Mayawati’s party, the BSP, which is eyeing a big pie share in all these four states. Though no one is really ready to say how many seats or votes she is likely to draw this time, parties fear her damage potential. And since there is some commonality between BSP and Congress voters, the BJP is expecting heavy gains.
