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Terror in Capital
Hindutva again |
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Nuclear options
Engagement with Iran
Service with a smile
Fighting insurgency
Need for energy security in central Asia
Chatterati
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Terror in Capital
THE pattern is sickeningly familiar. After every terrorist strike of the kind suffered by the national Capital on Saturday, a nationwide “red alert” is sounded; leaders hold forth that it is the desperate handiwork of a handful of foreign-trained terrorists who would not be spared at any cost. But things cool down after a few days, to be sent soaring again by another dastardly attack.
This charade has been repeated after Delhi, Mumbai, Surat, Jaipur, Bangalore and Hyderabad explosions. The ugly fact is that in the past several years, the country has not been able to get to the root of a single terrorist operation. At best we capture the foot soldiers or may be those just above them, but the real masterminds have never been hauled over coals. Like it or not, India has come to be seen as a soft state and as long as the enemies of the nation are certain that they can get away with it, they will continue to kill and maim. In a country of the size of India, it is just not possible to patrol every nook and corner all the time. Whichever area is left unattended is likely to become the hunting ground of the killers who are always on the lookout for a soft target. An effective watch can be kept over the goings-on only if every single citizen acts as the eyes and ears of the police. For that to happen, the police should evoke confidence in the heart of law-abiding citizens. But the policemen are ever enthusiastic to target the ordinary citizens. With such a disconnect existing between the citizens and the police, supply lines of intelligence information have become dead. But the real blame lies at the door of the government, which has been effete in its performance. Lily-livered policies have made sure that the killers are given a long rope depending on which religion or community they belong to. The government shows firmness only if there is no chance of losing votes. Otherwise, it is always ready to bend over backwards to please even brazenly anti-Indian elements. How can the government take any resolute action when its leading lights like Railway Minister Lalu Yadav give a clean chit to even SIMI? Since the terrorists know that they can kill any number of innocent citizens and yet have sympathisers among politicians, they can be depended on to strike again and again. |
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Hindutva again
AS a party that has ruled the country, the BJP should have no difficulty in picking up issues -- be they social, economic or political -- which can be carved into the main plank for the next year’s elections. And yet, it has decided to harp on It is this agenda which was espoused forcefully at the three-day national executive of the party in Bangalore. In the process, the BJP came up with proposals which are as strident as they are dangerous. For instance, it has raked up the issue of the abolition of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir once again.
Ironically, it had to abandon it when it was in power under pressure from the NDA partners. At a time when the BJP is looking eagerly for new partners, it will find it difficult to find many takers for its stand. In fact, there may be rumblings within the Sangh Parivar itself over some of the proposals of BJP President Rajnath Singh. He has demanded that the government should mark a special area in the Kashmir Valley for the rehabilitation of Kashmiri Pandits. The saffron brigade may rail against this idea which may be seen as a bid to create Hindu ghettos. Equally puzzling is the demand that the “road leading to the Amarnath shrine All this is being done with an eye on the votes. But the party should have realised by now that carrying out a narrow agenda can take it only thus far and no further. It should not be taking a divisive line for the sake of minor electoral gains. It is every party’s right to have an eye on elections. At the same time, its other eye should be focused on national interests. The BJP may end up doing considerable damage to the interests of Hindus by stoking us-versus-they fires. The Jammu agitation has already worsened the situation in the Valley. Ill-thought-out proclamations will only further strengthen the hands of the enemies of the nation who are ever eager to arouse people’s passions. |
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Nuclear options WHILE the sincerity of the Bush administration in taking the 123 Agreement to its logical culmination has never been in doubt, some of the reports emanating from Washington have been worrying. One such report in the Washington Post says that the members of the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group had decided in private that sensitive technologies would not be sold to India.
This has certainly upset all those who believe or have been told to believe that the Indo-US civil nuclear deal would allow India to have full nuclear cooperation with the rest of the world. Of course, it is possible to dismiss this as just a newspaper report which a country like India need not be bothered about. The same is not the case with President George W. Bush telling US Congress that the US commitments on a “reliable supply of nuclear fuel” are merely “political commitments” and “not legally binding commitments”. Interpreted, it is up to the US President to honour the 123 Agreement which does not have any legal standing. Again, this is contrary to what the Indian public has been told about so far. Maybe, this doublespeak is to get the support of Congress for the deal before September 25 when Mr Bush is slated to meet Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Washington. But this kind of behaviour does not generate much confidence among the people of India. The government has already conveyed its displeasure to the US administration.
Whatever be the legal and legislative rigmaroles in the US, the only document that will guide India-US relations on the nuclear question is the 123 Agreement. India will not be guided by any other document or law. The US will do well to remember that if it acts funny, India will have the freedom to sew up its own nuclear deals with other NSG countries. In other words, it will be under no obligation to buy nuclear technology from US companies. After all, it had to turn to other sources like France when the US denied fuel for the Tarapur plant, which had come up with US support. |
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The young do not know enough to be prudent, and therefore they attempt the impossible — and achieve it, generation after generation. — Pearl S. Buck
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Engagement with Iran
TalK about Iran in any group of strategic analysts and one comes across opinions that are as far apart as chalk and cheese. On one side are those who feel that India is not exploiting its potential advantages in Iran. The argument goes that this country, leave aside its role as a principal supplier of energy, is our natural ally.
It facilitates access to the strategically important Central Asia Republics. In Afghanistan, its empathy for Tajik, Uzbek and Shia Hazaras is in tune with India’s own synergies with these groups, also going by the name of Northern Alliance. India’s Shias, about 20 million of them, have natural leanings with Iran’s Shiite population. As an indirect benefit, Iran has serious problems with Pakistan across the border with Baluchistan; smuggling of drugs being at the forefront. Its port of Chahbahaar, located at the mouth of the Gulf of Hormuz through which passes the heaviest tanker traffic in the world, can act as a counterweight to Gwadar being developed by Pakistan. Iran’s military prowess dominates the region and with a population of 70 million, and growing, it is clearly poised to be a leader, if not that already. Therefore, Iran is a country with which India should be fostering strong relations. The contrary view is not less convincing. Iran has had an ongoing nuclear weapon technology relationship with Pakistan going back 25 years during which centrifuges and hard to get nuclear materials were transferred. In the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC), Iran has frequently led measures hostile to India in regard to Jammu and Kashmir. As for energy, Iran has reneged on an agreement reached some years ago for long-term supply of gas. In any event, it has as much to gain from its seller relationship as does India as a buyer. There is also the logic that India must pay more attention to the Gulf countries which are Sunni, relevant to India’s own very large population of that sect, and the largest source of oil and gas. Against only a couple of hundred Indian families in Iran, there are 1.5 million Indian workers in the Gulf; they remitted over $ 14 billion to the country last year.
Some of Iran’s recent gestures have been quite unfriendly. It was the only littoral country, apart from Pakistan, which declined to participate in the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium hosted by the Indian Navy for earlier this year. Close proximity with Iran also detracts from our growing international relationships. According to this view, there is no need to lose much sleep over Iran. Interestingly, each of these two positions has substance. At this moment, it may be useful to correct some misperceptions that exist amongst Indians of life in Iran; two weeks spent there recently helping in this process. The notion that clerics dominate life is exaggerated. While the Supreme Leader, Ayotollah Khameini is, no doubt, exactly that, governance is carried out in about the same way as in every other country with Ahmedinijad, an elected President, as the head.
Another cleric, Ayotollah Rafsanjani, former President and now chairing the Committee of Expert Advisors is not just a man of religion; he is almost a business magnate owning and operating an airline, Mahan Airways, and other enterprises. The religious activity is mainly confined to the holy city of Qom. Even otherwise, Iranians are not deeply religious; the great majority does not visit mosques on Fridays; nor do they pray five times a day as ordained.
Police is quite visible in enforcing law and order, but not much more than in most countries, including the western world. The impression that women in “chadors” form a sea of black is equally misplaced. There are many thus clad but they are mainly to be found in the older generation and in the downmarket and rural areas. Elsewhere, more women are to be seen in black knee length coats and a hijab covering the head and neck. More of these coats are now becoming coloured, literally, and the hijab replaced by scarves. On any morning, thousands of Iranian women are on the streets going to work, in buses and metros. Women drivers are to be seen aplenty. Public parks are choked with families over the weekends. In brief, the scene is far more liberal and more democratic than what obtains in most Arab countries. Despite the severity of sanctions, Iran is not doing too badly economically. Its GDP, non oil, grew 7.6 per cent last year; its exports to the European Union increased by 18 per cent in the same period. Inflation, at 26 per cent, is high and hurting but shops and supermarkets are full and construction activity visibly booming. There are very few power outages in Teheran or in other cities and the tap water is clean and drinkable.
Global terrorism has come from radical organisations in several countries but there is no record yet, of any terrorists originating from Iran. For all its history, tourism is, unfortunately, almost non-existent. Sanctions, disinformation and the need to conform in dress have, together, created the image of a place better not visited. The fact is that both as a society and as a country, Iran is more developed than is India. The man on the street is friendly to India and things Indian, movies included. India has its own interests to pursue in the years ahead. For at least the next decade, it must seek to consolidate and expand its global interfaces. Smooth relations with the USA lie at the core; close engagement with Iran comes in the way. India can also not accept the emergence of Iran as a nuclear weapon state which will cause great turbulence in the Gulf region where it has critical interests. This is the context in which India’s interactions with Iran should be seen. If we look at the contradictions in terms of timeframes, the picture becomes more manageable. In the near term, our relations should be friendly and correct without being exuberant. There should be economic and defence cooperation, to the extent possible, as also the traditional cultural and historical linkages. There is simply no reason why India should not have some exchange of military officers for training at Staff Colleges and other institutions. Visits of warships to ports in either country should figure in the menu of cooperation. Activities in Afghanistan and Central Asia can also be in synergy where possible. Over the longer term, we must be prepared to deal more proactively with Iran as the major player in West Asia and shape our strategies accordingly. Even the Americans will adjust their relationships and we should not feel too inhibited. In short, our immediate engagement must be more positive than it presently is even as we prepare for a more proactive relationship later on. All things considered, slow and steady should be the theme of India’s interface with
Iran. The writer is a former Director-General, Defence Planning Staff. |
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Service with a smile Damla is young. Probably, in early twenties. She is beautiful. Pink cheeks. Glowing skin. A good figure. She is a picture of health. All kinds of dresses, skirts or trousers, sit equally well on her. She seemed to be very active and equally attractive.
And we met this charming lady on board the “Navigator of the Seas”, a huge luxury liner that carries 3600 passengers with a crew of 850. It has 1800 rooms. A number of bars and restaurants. A casino and a conference room. Health club. Swimming pools - hot and cold. Mini golf course with a simulator. Facilities for ice skating and rock climbing. Games for children of all ages and a walking track for the old like me. A sizeable shopping arcade. The entire paraphernalia is spread over 14 floors. The ship is a sight to behold. It is massive and majestic. The vastness of the sea and the mass of metal makes everyone feel like a dwarf. But once we had got in, it was a picture of cosy comfort. Fast lifts. Willing workers. And gourmet food. It is a place where everyone wants and is waiting to pamper you. We had boarded the ship with all kinds of apprehensions
and fears. What would happen if the sea is rough? Shall we have sea sickness? But all the fears were allayed as the ship sailed. The size and smoothness were to be seen to be believed. After some rest, we were inclined to explore the ship that was going to be our home for the next few days. The restaurant on the fifth floor looked gorgeous. The right place for a proper meal. So, we decided to have our dinner there. As we entered, the steward guided us to our table for seven. The ladies were helped to their seats. And then there appeared this lady Damla. With a broad smile on her face, she said, “It is my privilege to serve three generations at one table... The chef has specially prepared an Indian vegetarian meal for you — spinach soup, vegetable biryani, daal makhani, masala cauliflower and cucumber raita. I am not disclosing the pudding for the present.” A girl from Turkey naming Indian dishes with such ease and without any notes. She even knew that my son and grandson were with me. It was obvious that Ms. Damla had done her home task. She was different. She was a fine example of service with a smile. Worthy of
emulation. |
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Fighting insurgency
HE who fights with monsters might take care lest he thereby becomes a monster,” wrote Nietzsche. Equally if you gaze for long into the abyss, the abyss also gazes back at you. Therefore, those who are caught up in extreme violence over prolonged periods of time are likely to become attuned to insensitivity and brutality. Often it is the laxity in the application of law, assumed power over others and the assurance of protection from repercussions of unlawful acts, which propel security forces to resort to fake encounters, custodial killings and nurturing the so-called ‘encounter specialists.’ Often it is a case of contract killing by the police in inter-gang wars. The Indian Army’s engagement in counter-insurgency operations for more than 50 years in the North East and for nearly two decades in J and K has sometimes made it deviate from its civilised ways and its conduct has not been completely free of blemish.
This prolonged and relentless fight has not left the Army untouched by insensitivity and brutality. In the last 10 years the Army has lost 569 officers and over 7,500 in personnel below officer rank
(PBOR.) Heavy casualties, travails of hard and arduous life in difficult and hostile environments with constant danger to life play on troops psyche and can lead to destabilising of the mind. Seeing innocent men, women, children and their own comrades and officers being blown apart and gunned down does lead to revulsion and desensitising with a strong desire to avenge.
In this, the reaction at Parthribal stands out as its darkest act; no matter what the background (deliberate false intelligence inputs from the police!). There have been allegations of human rights violations against the Army almost all along this long period. In counter-insurgency environments, allegations against troops are invariably motivated to discredit them and create alienation amongst the populace and sympathy for insurgents.
Often the media in an attempt at ‘breaking news’ comes up with unverified accounts and tries to make these sensational. This is the most common feature in such operations. The alleged rape of Manorama Devi in Manipur by Assam Regiment personnel before she was killed while escaping is the better known story thrown up by miscreants and the press. The reports of two autopsies carried out on her (copies available with me) rule out rape, yet her alleged rape was widely publicised. It is not to contend that there are no excesses, but fortunately the Indian army continues to be led by good leaders, baring a miniscule number, who are first gentlemen and then officers. Every case of alleged human rights violation is fully investigated and those found at fault are severely punished. A large number of court-martials held in the last 10 years, including those of officers, bear witness to this point. Perhaps, a very small percentage do manage to escape notice and wrath of the military law.
Where officer-man relationship is weak, unconcern for the troops well-being prevalent, the moral fiber of officers weak, discipline lax, some manner of abnormal conduct by troops can manifest. The shooting of seniors, comrades, surrendered terrorists, innocent civilians and suicides occur.
Whatever side-effects there are, under the current situation, can be moderated by good leadership, treating men as valued and respected individuals, sound discipline and value of human life. However, notwithstanding all the stress and pressures, the Indian soldier, by and large, remains steadfast, disciplined, God-fearing and
civilised. Though the Indian Army has been engaged in insurgency operations for a very long time, more than any other army in the world, at any time, yet no systemic methodology, set strategy and techniques have been evolved, and where evolved, are not articulated well enough or rigidly observed. Unboubtedly no two situations can ever be precisely alike, yet general principles, techniques and methods of coping with these extraordinary situations, in all their varied forms, more or less, remain constant.
It is lack of set rules or guidelines which often result in faulty actions by troops such as where the possibility of collateral damage in way of casualties of innocents is manifestly obvious, engagement with the insurgents should be avoided, unless the demands of the situation are contrary to this rule. Often pressure from the top to deliver (dead bodies and weapons etc), desperation to earn credit in way of gallantry awards and the like, by hook or by crook, leads to excesses and faking. Equally it is well for military commanders to remember that the Army alone cannot eliminate insurgency because its causes lie in the social, economic and political domain. The military can only keep it at levels where the political and administrative organs can fruitfully work towards finding a solution to end the alienation and draw the people concerned into the national mainstream. Somehow this seems to elude the nation, essentially due to the politics of self-interest and corrupt administration. The officer-man relationship, setting of good examples through personal conduct, high moral values and probity have been the guiding star of leadership in the Indian Army and that alone can ensure civilised behaviour of troops towards civil population in insurgency-infested areas.
However, here we are concerned with the applicability of the postulation of “gazing into the abyss and the abyss gazing
back”. It can be argued that the roots of abnormal conduct amongst troops during |
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Need for energy security in central Asia
THE break up of diplomatic relations between Russia and Georgia aptly showcases the perennial issues of territorial and economic interest conflict that Premier Vladimir Putin has to periodically face up with from many of the former Republics, as he steers to keep on track the erstwhile Soviet empire, now mired in fiscal decline and a cold war that is beginning to, once again, raise its head. As Russia tries to assert its military supremacy over one former region or the other, a few like the United States are not far behind as they propel their agenda of an eastward roll of NATO, which one day they hope will include within its fold the former territories of the USSR or in the very least help neutralise some of them from ever again taking an exclusive Russia Club membership. And whereas maintaining some kind of a morale-boosting link over its former territories is one definite strategic objective, it goes without saying that ensuring a stranglehold over the central-south Asian oilfields and natural gas reserves is of paramount importance to a Premier, who is proud and determined enough to ever forget that once his country was the other great super power of the world. The dependency on oil in today’s energy-hungry world affects this vast Siberian swathe of land as it would sorely affect the fortunes of the Americas or a highly industrialised Europe. A war in Georgia creates major rumblings in the flow of the oil and gas pipelines that run across the Caspian and the Black Sea,and worse prompt the owners and their subsidiaries into temporary or even permanent closure of all their infrastructure as witnessed recently in Georgia, courtesy BP. And as America furthers its interests around the former territories of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Georgia, Russia is left with little choice but to keep in location as long as it can its nuclear tipped Black Sea fleet that has for over 200 years been always based in the Crimean port of Sevastopol. Nearer home, the issues of oil dependence and pipeline security take on an even more worrying colour as the added factor of Islamic fundamentalism manifesting itself in some poorly run states in the neighbourhood begins to raise its head. The physical security of any gas and oil reserves transiting from the former Republics through Afghanistan and Pakistan remains a question mark, considering the hold, durability and consistency in foreign policy of both these governments. The projected Iran-Pakistan-India oil and gas pipeline similarly traverses a disruptive link in Pakistan and a possible United States policy change after the elections when pressure is likely to be built up on the Iranian government to refrain from enhancing its nuclear capability any further. It is, therefore, no surprise that China, which always keeps its ear close to the India’s oil and gas interests will be better served if we do not put all our eggs in one basket and move out of Russian influence( it has always dominated India because of its arms supplies) to Iraq and other oil-producing nations where supply can be assured more regularly and efficiently. Though the ONGC-Mittal consortium is negotiating with PetroKazakh,it needs to be remembered that this entire region will face troubled times next year when the dispensation in the United States mounts with renewed vigour the war on international terrorism. It also has to be remembered that even if the army in Pakistan remains apolitical, the dice is loaded heavily against the Asif Zardari combine, which has to balance the twin requirements of keeping the radicals happy and at the same time show results in the war against the Taliban and remnants of the al Qaida on the common border with Afghanistan. And as Pakistan dithers on this mission or is unwilling to act,the task of Hamid Karzai in keeping the Taliban from across the border at bay could be magnified to unmanageable proportions. India’s security interests are always intertwined with what goes on in its immediate neighbourhood. We have already witnessed how much resistance we are faced with from the fundamentalists when our engineers are assisting in as simple a project as the road construction in Afghanistan. Another small matter in passing needs mention here. Central Asia is of great strategic and commercial import for India and it is time the MEA creates a separate department dealing exclusively with this region. |
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Chatterati Somehow
the BJP is not getting its house in order. L K Advani, the Prime Minister-in-waiting, is a bit off. Not many speak to him and he chooses to speak to even fewer people. Rajnath Singh is giving attention to his close aide and Vajpayee “disciple”, Vijay Goel, as the CM candidate in Delhi. Rajnath always praises Goel as the emerging and “young at heart with commitment”. Goel’s closeness to Rajnath Singh and the rapport he has built up with him over the years will take him to greater heights in the party. The BJP president actually will have to answer embarrassing questions about Vijay Malhotra who was sometime back declared the CM candidate. Goel has already emerged as an important national leader, something that the Advani “camp” has not taken a liking to.
It is amazing how Brajesh Misra went gaga over the nuclear deal while Yashwant Sinha immaturely lambasted it. Even if you are sitting in opposition it is more graceful and dignified to praise something that will benefit the nation.
But in all this — be it the J & K issue, the vote-for-cash scam or nuclear deal — Narendra Modi, the strong man of the BJP, has been absolutely quiet.
Leo presidents It is amazing how nearly all Pakistan presidents have been Leos. The country itself came into being in August (Leo). Asif Ali Zardari is also born under the zodiac sign Leo. Zardari’s predecessor, Pervez Musharraf, was also a Leo, born on August 11. Zardari, born on July 26, has become the fifth Leo President. Apart from Musharraf, Ayub Khan, Zia-ul-Haq and acting President Muhammadmian Soomro were also Leos. Zardari has the distinction of being the first civilian Leo to make it to the top post. It seems that Leo presidents have a history of ruling for a relatively longer periods.
The Gandhis Last week as Priyanka Gandhi flew to Mashobra for the “bhoomi puja” of her dream house, Sonia Gandhi made inquiries about the welfare of the Bachchans in Mumbai. The family relationship of two generations had gone sour after Rajiv’s death. Now it seems to be back to normal after Sonia’s expression of interest in the Bachchans’ safety from Thackeray’s goonda raj. Last week Rahul, along with Priyanka, Robert and their son, spent an evening with Javed Akhtar, Shabana Azmi and some personal friends at the Mahadev auditorium. This was to watch Farhan Akhtar’s new film “Rock On”. Rahul is a fan of Jazz music and Akhtar’s movie has songs that have already hit a global high on internet downloads.
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