New Delhi, June 8
Weather-wise, there is some not-so-good news. The southwest monsoon has gone into a weak phase and weather experts are not willing to hazard a comment, or even a guess, on when it will revive. What is more worrying is apprehensions being voiced by some of them that monsoon may not revive till June 18, a situation not good for farmers and the common man alike.

National Centre for Medium Range Forecast (NCMRF) model predictions are also suggesting no further advancement of monsoon in the next week. The weather office, responsible for the medium-range forecast in the country, says the rainfall activity is likely to remain subdued except over northeast India, during the next seven days.

The NCMRF predictions are also indicating that the Indian monsoon region may witness an overall weakening of monsoon circulation with weak cross-equatorial flow of winds from the southern hemisphere to Arabian Sea, and weak monsoon current over the Arabian Sea till June 14. In addition, seasonal trough over the Gangetic plains is expected to remain poorly developed and there may be dominance of westerly winds over most parts of the country.

But what weather experts are more apprehensive of is a situation when monsoon may not revive till June 18. And when the build-up happens again, there is a possibility that it might start afresh from the equator. This, they feel, will be bad from the Indian monsoon point of view as the monsoon current may take more time to reach the northwestern parts of the country. But if the monsoon build-up takes place from the Bay of Bengal, all will eventually be well.

In view of this scenario, the NCMRF predicts day temperatures over plains of northwest and adjoining central India to increase further during the next 48 hours. The eastern parts, including Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa and West Bengal, may also experience a rise in temperatures following this trend after the next 24 to 36 hours.

As of now, yesterday’s low pressure area over Jharkhand and neighbourhood is now over West Bengal and Jharkhand. But, it is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours. Under its influence, West Bengal, Jharkhand and adjoining Bihar and Orissa may continue to receive good rainfall activity during the next 24 hours and decrease significantly thereafter.

A relief for the northwest may come in the form of a fresh western disturbance, which is likely to approach north Pakistan and Jammu and Kashmir during the next 24-48 hours and move in an east-northeast direction. Under its influence hilly regions of northwest India are expected to receive isolated to scattered rain and snowfall between June 10 and 12.