New Delhi, February 23
The process of government formation in Bihar and Jharkhand promises to be a sticky affair with the exit polls forecasting a fractured mandate in these two states.
Although the three exit polls gave different figures, they all point to an improved performance by the BJP-Janata Dal (U) combine, an erosion in the support base of Laloo Prasad Yadav’s RJD and the emergence of LJP’s Ram Vilas Paswan as a key player in the formation of the next government in Bihar.
It promises to be a photo-finish with the exit polls forecasting 80 to 101 seats for the BJP-JD (U) alliance in the 243-member Assembly, 80 to 96 for the RJD and 22 to 26 seats for the LJP. The Congress has failed to emerge as a significant
force, winning anything ranging from six to 20 seats. The polls have also projected victory for a large number of Independent and rebel candidates who are expected to play a crucial role in deciding the next dispensation in Bihar.
If these exit polls stand, the post-poll scenario will witness some hard bargaining and backroom negotiations as the UPA and the NDA will do their best to keep each other out. If the NDA comes close to the 100-mark, as per the Aaj Tak poll forecast, it will try to make up the shortfall by wooing Independent candidates.
Mr Laloo Prasad Yadav, now recognised as a master strategist, is not likely to give in so easily and will fight hard to retain his government. Although he can rely on Congress support, it would appear that its numbers may not help reach the half-way mark.
If the exit poll projections are anything to go by, it would appear that the Congress strategy of having a partial alliance with the LJP and friendly contests with the RJD actually proved counter-productive. Given the sharp polarisation between pro-Laloo and anti-Laloo supporters, the Congress found itself falling between two stools. It failed to take advantage of the anti-Laloo sentiment and dent the BJP’s upper caste vote, as it had hoped to do, since it did not attack the RJD sufficiently enough. Besides, the electorate was convinced that the Congress and the RJD will come together after the poll.
