Muzaffarnagar, May 3
The real battle for
Delhi will begin in Baghpat and 17 other Lok Sabha constituencies in western
Uttar Pradesh tomorrow. What has been witnessed so far is only the level of
political preparedness of the combatants for a final assault on Delhi. Wise
generals usually have a surprise strategy for first baffling and then beating
the enemy. They do not show their hand until the last moment.
With the first
two rounds more or less behind them the neta log are expected to descend on the
18 constituencies in western UP in droves. They will raise the pitch of the
campaigning to a level that has not been witnessed thus far either during the
first round in eastern UP or the one for the May 5 poll.
UP’s second round is
crucial for it will decide the fate of Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee. But the last
round on May 10 is more crucial for it will play a key role in determining
whether he will remain Prime Minister. The Bharatiya Janata Party has already
sent an advance party. Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is leading it. The
saffron party’s strategy is baffling. It has certainly raised eyebrows. Western
UP is a Muslim-dominated region. In most constituencies their voting strength is
between 40 and 45 per cent.
The security agencies are more tense now than they
were during the April 26 round in eastern UP. With the fate of the candidates
for the 62 seats sealed in the EVMs the political parties will now divert all
their resources to Meerut, Baghpat, Moradabad, Bijnor, Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar
etc to create some kind of a wave.
In a manner of speaking in the early phase
80 goons were “looking after” 80 constituencies. After May 5 the equation will
change to 80 goons for the “electoral management” of just 18 constituencies.
Eastern UP reported just one incident of violence from Ghazipur, from where the
local don Mukhtar Ansari is contesting as a Samajwadi candidate. Western UP has
a history of both caste and communal violence. Even when the going does not get
tough, the tough get going in any case, for that is the way they have been
brought up and that is what earns them their keep.
The flip side is that the
administration too has more security personnel at its disposal for the last
round. Most of the para-military contingents that were on duty in 80
constituencies are in the process of diverting their firepower for keeping
elections peaceful in western UP. After May 5 the remaining contingents will be
dispatched to sensitive constituencies. However, in the political context the
region will witness intense campaigning by leaders of most political parties
between May 4 and May 8. Apart from detailing Mr Modi how to “prepare” the
ground for the BJP as effectively in western UP as he had done during the
Assembly elections in Gujarat the party is banking on Mr Kalyan Singh making
good his promise of reviving the party. Mr Vajpayee too will address a series of
public meetings in constituencies where the saffron party stands a chance of
winning. It is supposed to be Mr Ajit Singh’s territory. Yet, neither Mr Mulayam
Singh Yadav nor the Jat leader is leaving anything to chance by packing the last
leg with as many meetings and contact programme as their tired limbs will allow
them to handle.
But there is more excitement in the Congress camp than in that
of its rivals. Reports from Delhi indicate that the entire Nehru-Gandhi parivar
has agreed to campaign in western UP after May 4. The exit poll predictions have
put new life in the party. In the beginning the Congress was as cold as dead
meat. Midway through the elections the body turned warm.
Party leaders have
sent messages to 10 Janpath pointing out the importance of the last leg. Leaders
of the rival parties admit that if Mrs Sonia Gandhi, Mr Rahul Gandhi and Mrs
Priyanka Gandhi Vadra decide to camp in western UP until the last day of
campaigning on May 8, the party can rework its old magic.
The most intriguing
part of the campaign is not how the BJP, the Congress and the Samajwadi leaders
are handling their campaign. Where is Ms Mayawati and her flock of dedicated
Bhahujan Samaj Party workers? The bookies are willing to place their money on
the BSP emerging as the largest group in UP.
