Weather vagaries take the toll
Prabhjot Singh

PUNJAB GIRDAWARI FIGURES Break-up of affected acres according to degree of damage (%)

Drought, followed by incessant rain, is worrying those who till the economy-sustaining soil. When the farmers in rain-fed areas needed to irrigate their crops in July and August, there were no rains. And now when they have been praying for dry weather so that they can harvest their kharif crop and take it to grain markets, heavy rains are wreaking havoc.

“Not only weather Gods, all odds have been exceptionally against us this time; it has never been like this before,” cried Mr Balwant Singh, a farmer from Ludhiana district.

A virtually two-thirds dry period in the southwest monsoon has added ominously to the problems of those who have been traditionally following the wheat-paddy crop rotation. But this time, the weather, too, appears to have joined the “diversification chorus,” forcing the tillers to think of alternatives. Quickly depleting groundwater level, costlier electricity and levying of taxes on fertilisers, insecticides and pesticides, besides the reluctance of the Union Government to increase the minimum support price of kharif crops, may be the other deterrents to the traditional wheat-paddy cycle and “catalysts for diversification”.

The Punjab Government’s stand that in spite of “no or little rain” the state could not be declared “drought-hit,” may have rung the alarm bells for farmers. The argument given by the state that the affected areas do not meet the laid down criteria, has upset farmers. The subsequent effort to placate them by demanding a special package, including bonus, from the Centre may have met with some but not complete success.

To assuage the hurt feelings, the government ordered special “girdwaris” in all 17 districts of the state between August 11 and 25. To counter the criticism by Opposition parties in general, and the Shiromani Akali Dal in particular, the government asked the Centre for a special package on the plea that “because of the unprecedented hostile weather, the cost of production has shot up tremendously. The farmers had to spend more on diesel to run their pumps for irrigating their fields. Besides, they have had to shell out more as the diesel is now costlier”.

A careful scrutiny of the report submitted by the Department of Revenue to the government after the completion of special girdawaris reveals that as many as 2,58,781 acres of land were left uncultivated at the beginning of the kharif season because of drought-like conditions.

The worst hit was the Malwa belt, with Patiala topping the list (61,866 acres) followed by Bathinda (48,583 acres), Mansa (37,111 acres) and Sangrur (21,486 acres).

In many areas, expecting a late monsoon, farmers had gone for transplantation of paddy but were forced to plough their fields as the rains failed. Of the 90,262 acres ploughed after sowing, Malwa was again the worst hit.

Muktsar, the hometown of Shiromani Akali Dal chief and former Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal, was at the top of the list with 24, 866 areas, followed by Mansa (23,867 acres) and Bathinda (12,834 acres). The problem of ploughing in of sown fields was also witnessed in certain pockets of the Doaba belt, where Nawanshahr was badly affected as 17,276 acres of cultivated fields were ploughed back because of want of irrigation.

Hoping against hope, many farmers thought it prudent to sow their ploughed fields again. As a result, 14,313 acres of land were sown a second time around.

(The accompanying chart reveals the extent of damage to crops in Punjab.)

The girdawari has been done taking note of the extent of damage. Interestingly, of the affected areas, the area in which the damage extent is the greatest (76 to 100 per cent) is also the maximum, as nearly 2,17,672 acres of land suffered almost total loss. Of course, the worst affected was the Malwa belt. Bathinda, for example, which has been witnessing a spate of protests both from farmers and farm workers for the past several months, had 41,347 acres with 76 to 100 per cent damage, followed closely by the border district of Ferozepore (39,396 acres), Patiala (32,886 acres), Muktsar (25,126 acres) and Faridkot (15,339 acres).

The second category of maximum damage (50 to 75 per cent) again had Ferozepore on the top, with almost one-third of the total loss as it accounted for 17,658 acres of a total of 53,894 acres.

Expect upsets in future, too
Prabhjyot Kaur and S.S. Hundal

Changes in atmospheric chemistry due to the steady rise in the concentration of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane and chlorofluorocarbons have led to the phenomenon of global warming, commonly referred to as the Greenhouse Effect. These increases appear to be small but the broad-scale effect is a smooth global increase in temperatures, though there may even be sudden and step-like increases in certain regions. The Greenhouse Effect as such is not a bad thing, as these gases keep the earth warm enough to be habitable. The problem, however, is perceived to be with the fact that mankind is accelerating this effect. The mystery is, what overall effect will this have on world climate?

It is difficult to be very specific about the spatial details of global warming and the associated changes. There is a general agreement, however, that the higher latitudes will warm more than the lower latitudes, the winter half of the year will warm more than the summer half, and that on average the world will receive more precipitation.

Global warming

Current scientific consensus suggests a global warming of approximately 0.5° C by 1995-2005, 1.5° C by 2015-2050 and 3.0° C by 2050-2100. The mean global surface temperature has increased over the past century with a particularly sharp increase since the 1970s. The all-lndia mean annual surface temperature derived from 73 stations across India has shown a significant warming of 0.4° C over the past 100 years, which is comparable to the global mean trend of 0.3 °C increase in that period.

Temperature changes over the earth are not uniform. An average of 3° C rise over the globe signifies 1-2° C rise around the equatorial belts and as much as 7-10° C rise at the poles. This would trigger another series of problems around the globe, such as changes in climatic patterns and the resultant shifting in agricultural patterns in tropical and temperate belts. Researchers suggest that a 1° C increase in mean annual temperature would advance the thermal limit of cereal cropping in mid-latitude northern hemisphere regions by about 150-200 km polewards.

Rainfall

In addition to global warming, changes in precipitation patterns over the globe are also expected. At latitudes approximately over 45° north and south rainfall may be enhanced by 5 per cent in summer and possibly up to 15 per cent in winters. However, between 30-45° north and south latitudes, summer rainfall is likely to become very limited and winter rainfall may decrease by 5-10 per cent. At latitudes between 0-30° north and south, rainfall is expected to increase by about 5-10 per cent. Punjab extends from about 29° to 31° north while the Indian continent extends from about 8° to 36° north.

One of the most predictable consequences of global warming is sea level rise that occurs due to the thermal expansion of seawater and by melting of the glaciers. The many hundreds of mountain glaciers present in mid to high latitudes are equivalent of 30-60 cm of sea level, if completely melted. These glaciers are sensitive to changes in climate — measurements indicate that most of them have retreated substantially over the past 100 years, coinciding with the period of global warming. For the future, the best estimate is that by 2030, the global sea level will be about 20 cm higher than today. The implied rate of rise is about 4-6 mm per annum, which is 2-6 times faster than that over the past 100 years.

Changes at home

Closer home, a study compiled by agrometeorologists at the Punjab Agricultural University reveals that in the past nearly 30 years annual and seasonal (kharif and rabi season) temperatures and rainfall have changed over various locations. The annual as well as kharif and rabi season minimum temperatures have increased at the following average rates: Ludhiana — 0.07° C/ year; Patiala — 0.02° C/ year; and Bathinda — 0.02° C/ year. The annual and kharif season maximum temperatures have decreased at the following average rate: Amritsar — 0.03° C/ year and Ludhiana — 0.02° C/ year.

The rainfall has invariably shown an increasing trend. The annual rainfall has increased at the following rates: Ludhiana — 10 mm/ year; Patiala — 12 mm/ year; Jalandhar — 11 mm/ year; and Bathinda — 16 mm/ year. The kharif season rainfall has increased at the following rates since 1970: Ludhiana — 9 mm/ year; Patiala — 11 mm/ year; Jalandhar — 10 mm/ year; and Bathinda — 17 mm/ year. These climatic changes could have serious implications on a long-term basis with regard to agriculture and ecology in future.

While nothing can undo the damage already done, the least we can do is to learn to live with our mistakes and not repeat them. We must learn to respect nature and make this a cardinal principle of development policies that are not just discussed at meetings and symposia but must put in practice too.

Farm operations for September
Time to plan colour for your garden

ORNAMENTALS

Do not allow rainwater to stand in the chrysanthemum pots for a long period, tilt the pots to drain out excess water. Keep on training the plants. Use Bavistin to control fungal diseases and Monocrotophos insecticide spray against the attack of insect.

HORTICULTURE

— For checking pre-harvest fruit drop, spray the trees with 10 ppm of 2,4-D and 0.5% zinc sulphate. For spraying 1 acre of citrus orchard 6 g of 2,4-D and 3.0 kg of zinc sulphate is dissolved in 550 litres of water. For the control of pathological fruit drop in citrus, spray the trees with 20 g of Aureofungin in 500 litres of water or Bavistin 500 g in 500 litres of water during this month.

— In citrus, leaf miner and psylla can be checked by spraying 625 ml Nuvacron 36 SL or 670 ml of Rogor 30 EC in 500 litres of water. For control of white fly use 1000 ml Fosmite 50 EC or 1250 ml Hostathion 40 EC or 1140 ML Thiodan 35 EC in 500 litres of water. To check withertip or die back and melanose or stemend rot diseases, spray the plants with Bordeaux mixture 2:2:250 or 0.3% copper oxychloride.

— In grapes, for the control of Anthracnose disease, spray the vines with Bavistin @ 400 g/400 litres of water and later again with Bordeaux mixture @ 2:2:250 for the control of downy mildew. Give one pinching to Anab-e-Shahi variety of grapes having luxuriant growth this month.

— Progressive Farming, PAU