The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

New approach to Indo-Afghan relations
K.N. Pandita

Mr Hamid Karzai with Minister of State for External Affairs Omar Abdullah

Mr Hamid Karzai, Prime Minister of the interim government in Afghanistan, with Minister of State for External Affairs Omar Abdullah after arrival at Palam Air Force Station in New Delhi on Tuesday. — PTI photo

MR Hamid Karzai, Prime Minister of the interim government in Afghanistan, has concluded his delegation’s five-day visit to Teheran and is now in New Delhi. He is heading a strong delegation of 24 members, including 11 ministers. During his two-day visit to New Delhi, he will be meeting the Prime Minister and also some Indian business tycoons.

Soon after assuming the leadership of the coalition government, Mr Karzai undertook visits to major capitals of the world. In particular, his participation in the Tokyo meet was of much significance since that meeting was specifically organised to pool funding for reconstructing Afghanistan. As such, Mr Karzai is moving in the right direction because without massive foreign assistance, Afghanistan cannot heal its fractured economy. Therefore, Mr Karzai knows where the stability of his government lies. Of course, he has received encouraging response from almost all major capitals he has visited.

Mr Karzai visited Pakistan and held important and meaningful talks with General Musharraf. Obviously, Pakistan remains an important neighbour for Kabul, and has played an important role in the events of the recent past in the region. Karzai’s diplomatic posture in conducting his talks with the Pakistani counterpart is an indicator of how deftly he wants to handle the complicated affairs of his state. He has acknowledged the role of Pakistan in assisting the Afghans to beat back the Soviet invasion of 1979 and has also expressed his gratitude to Pakistan for having fended for nearly three million Afghan refugees. Both the statements are facts of history. However, the Afghan dignitary carefully circumvented the negative role of Pakistan in Afghanistan and her ambition of carving “strategic depth” for herself. These are somewhat irritating issues and it is better to brush them under the carpet.

Mr Karzai’s visit to Teheran has been undertaken in the background of somewhat disturbing circumstances. Washington has characterised Iran as one in the “axis of evil”. Washington has accused Iran of facilitating the escape of Al-Qaeda activists from Afghanistan and providing them shelter in her territory, of providing arms and support to the Taliban remnants in and around Kandahar and of abetting resurgence of Taliban insurgency against the interim government of Hamid Karzai.

This was by no means an atmosphere conducive for Hamid Karzai to lead his delegation to Iran and conduct business with an important neighbour. But reports emanating from Teheran suggest that he has handled the visit with utmost political skill and acumen so that neither the Americans are annoyed nor are the Iranians confronted. It is remarkable to note that Mr Karzai’s delegation to Iran included the son of Ismael Khan, the Governor of Heat, the one who is suspected by the Americans of having links with Teheran. Apart from its various advantages, Hamid Karzai’s visit to Teheran has cleared the doubts and suspicions, if any, with the regime in Teheran.

Prime Minister Karzai is now in India at the head of a strong official delegation. This is his first visit to India after assuming the reins of power of the interim government. Soon after the installation of the coalition government in Kabul in December, at least three ministers visited New Delhi in succession. Prior to it, India had also been playing a background role at the Bonn deliberations, which brought the present government in Kabul into existence. Thereafter, General Fahim, the Defence Minister of Afghanistan, who is also the brother of late Ahmad Shah Masud, also visited India. There is regular communication between the two countries on matters of common interests contributing to the securing of peace in the region.

With the beginning of the Soviet incursion into Afghanistan, a situation developed in that country in which India was sidelined. With the advent of the Taliban, India’s role came to a total naught, thanks to the animus working in Indo-Pak relations. Only a year back, General Musharraf said that India had no role whatsoever to the north of Pakistan. Indian political commentators and academics specialising in the geopolitics of the region regularly advised the Government of India not to be complacent with what was going on in Afghanistan and the region. India was also warned from time to time that in case the Taliban succeeded in pulling down the liberal regime in neighbouring Tajikistan, it would be a great setback to India’s interests in Central Asia. However, India’s pre-occupation in Kashmir, and the USA not too realistic an appreciated of the impending threats in the region proved obstacles in the way of New Delhi to be more active on the subject.

But now there is a sea change in Indo-Afghan relations. The coalition regime has a fund of goodwill for India. It is looking forward to investment by India in Afghanistan in a massive way. It needs Indian expertise in various fields leading to the stabilising of the interim government. Evidently, foundations have to be laid for long-term Indo-Afghan economic and cultural relations.

There are several realities of the situation, which India should never lose sight of. The first is that although India has had good relations with the Northern Alliance leadership even during the days of Taliban dominance in Afghanistan, yet the fact of the matter is that the Pushtun ethnic segment of the Afghan population has to be given its due. India cannot afford to displease the Pushtun for historical and practical reasons.

The second reality is that there are three million Pushtun refugees in Pakistan. Durand Line or no Durand Line, Pakistan has a strong clout with the Pushtuns. Given the fact that Pakistan has been left with the licking of her wounds in Afghanistan, her intelligence agency will make a strong effort to revive the Pushtun antagonism to the Northern Alliance and if possible to foment anti-government flames in Afghanistan. It is time that New Delhi tries to neutralise this probability by establishing direct contact with the Pushtun leadership in Afghanistan and also among the Pushtun refugees in Pakistan and Iran.

The third reality is that India has no overland route leading to Afghanistan. As long as Pakistan remains antagonistic, we do not expect to reach Afghanistan as briskly as we would like. Therefore, it would require astute diplomatic skill to persuade the international community to bring pressure on Pakistan to provide exit route to Indian merchandise to Afghanistan. The USA has to understand that India can play a major role in transforming the economic condition in Afghanistan, which is the only key to an effort of stabilising a moderate government in Kabul and ensuring the development of civil society in Afghanistan.