NEW DELHI, Feb 5 — The Atal Behari Vajpayee government might find itself barking up the wrong tree in the upcoming assembly elections in Tamil Nadu with the regional PMK pulling out its two ministers and making its intentions clear of bidding adieu to the disparate National Democratic Alliance.

The resignation saga from the Union Council of Ministers came up yet again after PMK chief S. Ramadoss accompanied by the two ministers, N. T. Shanmugam and E. Ponnuswamy, called on the Prime Minister here today to seek redressal of their grievances with DMK strongman and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi.

Considering the changing equations and the BJP’s reluctance to intervene with the DMK, the two PMK ministers handed over their resignation personally to Mr Vajpayee. There are indications that the PMK has set the tone for joining hands with J. Jayalalitha’s AIADMK.

It is unlikely that the Prime Minister’s entreaties to the PMK to reconsider its decision of quitting the government will evoke a positive response. Serious cracks have developed about the distribution of seats in the 234-member Tamil Nadu Assembly between the DMK and the PMK forming part of the ruling NDA arrangement in Tamil Nadu.

BJP strategists are acutely aware of the widening rift between the DMK and the PMK in Tamil Nadu. This has sharpened over the past few months because of Mr Karunanidhi’s studied aloofness following the stand off between Dr Ramdoss and TRC President and former Union Petroleum Minister Vazhapadi K. Ramamurthy.

The BJP believes that it will benefit them to ride piggy back on the shoulders of the DMK in the Assembly elections in May. At the same time the DMK has convened a meeting on February 16 in Chennai to discuss poll alliance related issues. The BJP hopes that Mr Karunanidhi will sort out the irritants between the PMK and the TRC.

The BJP think-tank is not unduly perturbed with the PMK leaving the NDA fold. The PMK has five members in the Lok Sabha and their exit is not going to create any serious fissures or rattle the NDA boat at the Centre. It is argued that in the crucial numbers game, the NDA has a strength of 308 in the Lok Sabha, including the Telugu Desam Party which has a solid chunk of 29 seats and is supporting the Vajpayee government from outside.

In the worse case scenario with the PMK bidding adieu to the 23-party conglomerate, the NDA will still have a comfortable arithmetic of 303 seats in the Lok Sabha which is far above the simple majority of 273.

The PMK is positioning itself in Tamil Nadu as a key factor in any future government formation in the southern state. It is in the vanguard of bringing about fresh political alignments. As PMK’s numero uno, Dr Ramadoss is categoric that the DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu would be in for a rude shock in the coming elections because of Mr Karunanidhi’s style of functioning.

Dr Ramadoss maintains that the unpopularity of the DMK is rising in Tamil Nadu due to the feud in Mr Karunanidhi’s family and his party. At the same time, he is of the opinion that Ms Jayalalitha has not lost her clout or appeal despite the court verdicts against her.

He emphasises that the PMK is “emerging as a powerful party in northern Tamil Nadu. Any party which aligns with the PMK will form the next government. This is an indisputable reality,” he stresses with all the force at his command.

The PMK is working to a plan to first capture power in Pondicherry and win a sizeable chunk of seats in Tamil Nadu. There is no doubt that Dr Ramadoss has already done the necessary spadework with Ms Jayalalitha. AIADMK leaders also visualise more gains in having a truck with the PMK even though Ms Jayalalitha has ruled out forming or heading a coalition government.

The AIADMK enjoys a clear advantage over the DMK in southern and western Tamil Nadu but is weak in the Vanniyar belt of the northern part of the state. The PMK, which claims to have the eyes and ears of the Vanniyar community of north Tamil Nadu could, therefore, be a useful ally for the AIADMK.