M A I N   N E W S

Pak N-capability may be more than India’s
by Amar Chandel

The smug belief in India all along has been that its nuclear capabilities are far superior to that of Pakistan, both in terms of quality and quantity. The USA seemed to hold a similar view. But Washington now appears to have reversed its assessment of the nuclear arsenal. Marine Corps Gen Anthony Zinni, Commander, US Central Command, who is responsible for West Asia and South Asia, opines: "Don't assume that the Pakistani nuclear capability is inferior to the Indians".

Senior US military and intelligence officials have been reassessing the South Asian balance of power and have told NBC News during the past one week that Pakistan not only has more warheads but has far more capability to use them. Until recently, it was thought that Pakistan had somewhere between 10 and 15 nuclear warheads and India between 25 and 100. But after two years of intelligence gathering, it has now come to light that Pakistan may have five times as many than its long-time adversary. US officials believe that the Pakistanis "are more likely to have those numbers (25 to 100 weapons) than the Indians".

It is an open secret that American intelligence agencies have been snooping on weapons-development research in both countries ever since the May, 1998, nuclear tests caught them off-guard. US policy-makers now believe that Pakistan's nuclear programme, which has relied on generous Chinese assistance, may be far ahead of India's home-grown capabilities.

That is not all. Pakistan also appears to be far more capable than India of delivering nuclear payloads. This is particularly true of ballistic missiles.

A US Defence Department report says "India probably has a handful of nuclear bombs" (roughly five)". The unclassified document claims that India has no nuclear-capable missiles and fewer aircraft capable of delivering a nuclear payload than Pakistan does. India has twice tested a new intermediate-range missile, Agni, which may eventually provide the basis of a nuclear missile force. However, according to the US analysis, Agni will not be fielded with nuclear warheads for another 10 years.

Senior US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, say that with regard to delivery systems ---- the missiles and bombers needed to launch a nuclear strike --- Indian capabilities may be seriously lagging. India appears to only have begun work on missile warhead design and on the miniaturisation of weapons, two critical hurdles to the actual use of weapons.

On the other hand, Pakistani air and missile delivery systems are now believed to be "fully capable of a nuclear exchange if something happens". According to the assessment of US officials, Pakistan's air force, with its US F-16s and its French Mirage fighter-bombers, is superior at penetrating enemy airspace than India's Soviet-designed MiGs and Sukhois.

The most significant outcome of the recent reassessment is that Pakistan is now thought to possess about 30 nuclear-capable missiles, Chinese M-11 short-range missiles and its Pakistani variant, the Tarmuk, as well as the Ghauri, which is nothing but the North Korean Nodong intermediate-range missile.

A Defence Department analysis of the Indian programme suggests that India knows that it is behind Pakistan. Quoting India's recently publicised draft nuclear doctrine, the report says that "India announced its plans to develop a minimum nuclear deterrent force comprising a triad of nuclear delivery systems --- air, mobile land-based launches and sea-based platforms. The air component of its triad is the only one that may be in place already".

The US stand has all along been that South Asia is the most likely site of a nuclear war. According to one analysis done by the US Air Force, more than 15 crore Indians and Pakistanis could perish in an all-out nuclear exchange --- three times the total number of people who died in World War II.

It is acknowledged that neither side wants an all-out war, despite some hardliners on both sides who publicly claim they want to bring the issue to a head. One frequently cited fear among US intelligence officials is an accidental nuclear war in which Pakistan mistakes the firing of an Indian missile bearing a conventional warhead as a nuclear strike.

Pak denies US military report

ISLAMABAD, June 8 (DPA) — Pakistan today said its nuclear capabilities were only “modest” and denied that its atomic arsenal was superior to that of India.

A Foreign Office spokesman, commenting on a reported assessment by US military and intelligence officials, said in a statement that “it was removed from reality” and “extraordinary assertion”.

“The report will encourage India to defy efforts to prevent a nuclear build-up,” the statement said.